Kerrie Paige

Kerrie Paige
Cox Associates: Superior Business Decisions through Better Data Analysis

Kerrie Paige, Ph. D.

Dr. Kerrie Paige heads the Marketing Data Analysis and Modeling section at Cox Associates. She is responsible for developing statistical decision analysis software and decision support tools, business simulation models, and data analyses for telecommunications marketing data. She has also developed simulation models for a variety of other applications, ranging from performance modeling of computer systems for litigation support to simulation of biological processes involved in carcinogenesis. In addition to her key role at Cox Associates, Ms. Paige offers consulting services through her own company, Cascade Decision Technologies, which offers decision analysis, simulation, and operations research consulting services addressing markets and problems outside telecommunications.

Dr. Paige holds an M.S. in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado (1994), a B.S. in Mathematics from the University of Puget Sound (1992) and a Ph.D. in Operations Management (University of Colorado, 1999). Her doctoral dissertation, on classification trees, causal simulation models and state transition models to forecast customer behavior, is especially relevant to this project. At Cox Associates, Dr. Paige has led or contributed to the following major projects: For U S WEST Communications, developed a business simulation model to forecast the revenue impacts of introducing growth services (video, data, long distance) into markets at different times and using different bundling strategies. Ms. Paige designed, developed, and delivered a simulation model that helped to answer several major strategy questions in approximately 45 days.

	For the cable giant TCI, rapidly prototyped a business simulation model that projected the revenue impacts of different cable-product pricing and offer strategies, taking into account losses due to churn and competition.
	For AriaWest, helped develop a business case simulation model to forecast the revenue streams expected over the next 20 years from introducing various bundles of telephony, internet, and cable services.
	For PrimeCo, helped to develop a switch load growth forecasting model based on detailed data about customer-level call patterns and locations.
	For U S WEST Communications, helped to develop new statistical models and data-mining algorithms to better forecast likely customer behaviors (product acquisition, usage, and attrition) and aggregate growth in access lines. Co- authored several technical reports on over 5 projects in this area in 1997.

Prior to joining Cox Associates in 1997, Dr.. Paige worked for U S WEST Advanced Technologies 1993-1996). She served as an internal consultant in decision analysis, assisting a variety of project teams in clarifying the objectives and constraints of their analyses, making multi-attribute value trade-offs, and dealing with risks and uncertainties. Her major contributions included using decision analysis to identify cost savings opportunities that exceeded $10M/yr. for at least the next 5 years. Her leadership and technical contribution were recognized by U S WEST's Circle of Excellence Award in 1995.

Ms. Paige can be reached by e-mail at kerrie@cox-associates.com or kpaige@decistech.com .