HOW MANY NETWORK COMPONENTS WILL FAIL

NEXT YEAR ... AND HOW CAN FAILURE COSTS BE

REDUCED?

Cox Associates Consulting
COX ASSOCIATES CONSULTING | DENVER | Tel: 303.388.1778
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APPLIED STATISTICS In 2005 & 2006, working with Adjoined Consulting, Cox Associates developed an accurate failure prediction model for quantifying the expected number and timing of equipment failures (with confidence intervals) and for deciding what specific preemptive equipment replacements can most reduce costs from failures.
Operators of large telecommunications networks typically have many aging, unreliable components and equipment assemblies, such as clocks for synchronizing signals and other equipment, installed throughout their networks.  In 2005 and 2006, working with Adjoined Consulting, Cox Associates developed an accurate failure prediction model for quantifying the expected number and timing of equipment failures (with confidence intervals) and for deciding what specific preemptive equipment replacements can most reduce costs from failures.  The model is useful to both equipment and component manufacturers and to network operators, as it identifies cost-effective replacement schedules that lead to new sales opportunities for the manufacturers (for components no longer under warranty) while reducing replacement costs to the network operator. DO GENETICALLY MODIFIED GRASSES THREATEN THE ENVIRONMENT, OR YOUR LAWN? In 2006, Cox Associates analyzed published gene flow data on the spread of pollen and detection of glyphosate resistant seedlings at different distances and directions around an experimental test area where resistant grasses. Based on the spatial density of compatible recipient plants that might lead to resistant plants or hybrids, as well as on simple mathematical models of gene diffusion in an established system such as a lawn or wilderness area, we quantified upper bounds on the possible risk of resistance genes becoming established at different distances remote from the experimental area. These risks are typically extremely small (e.g., on the order of one chance in a hundred billion). HOW CAN CONSTRUCTION DEFECTS BE ESTIMATED FROM LIMITED SAMPLES? Construct defect litigation is often made more difficult by the fact that Plaintiff’s cannot easily inspect all affected properties (e.g., because owners may not be available or may not give permission when inspectors are available).  Defendants often suspect that the limited sample information that can be obtained in practice may not provide a sound basis for extrapolating defects to uninspected properties, especially if owners who give permission to inspect tend to be those with visible construction defects.  In 2005, Cox Associates developed new statisticalmethods for: (a)  Sampling for defects even when permission to inspect some properties may be denied; and (b) Making valid statistical inferences about the extent of defects from observed defect rates, despite practical limitations such as informative censoring of samples based on owner permissions.  The new framework emphasizes making correct decisions by conditioning on available information, rather than achieving representative or random statistical samples.
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