LOUIS ANTHONY (TONY) COX, JR., PH.D

Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, Colorado, 80218

(303)-388-1778 (Phone);  (303)-388-0609 (Fax);  tony@cox-associates.com

 

Tony Cox is President of Cox Associates (www.cox-associates.com), a Denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk analysis, causal modeling, probabilistic and statistical risk analysis, data mining, advanced analytics, and operations research.  Since 1986, Cox Associates’ mathematicians and scientists have developed and applied computer simulation and biomathematical models, statistical and epidemiological risk analyses, causal data mining techniques, and operations research and artificial intelligence risk and decision models to measurably improve health, business, and engineering risk analysis and decision-making for public and private sector clients.  Since 1996, its sister company, NetAdvantage, has provided operations research services and software for telecommunications companies.  In 2006, Cox Associates was inducted into the Edelman Academy of the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), recognizing outstanding real-world achievements in the practice of operations research and the management sciences.

 

Dr. Cox holds a Ph.D. in Risk Analysis (1986) and an S.M. in Operations Research (1985), both from M.I.T.  He has an AB from Harvard University (1978) and is a graduate of the Stanford Executive Program (1993).  He is a member of the National Academies' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications (BMSA), and has been Honorary Full Professor of Mathematics at the University of Colorado, where he has lectured on biomathematics, health risk modeling, computational statistics and causality.  Dr. Cox has been on the Faculties of the Center for Computational Mathematics and the Center for Computational Biology at the University of Colorado at Denver and is Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at the University of Colorado Health Sciences Center. He is a member of the National Academies Standing Committee on the Use of Public Health Data in FSIS Food Safety Programs.

 

Dr. Cox is Area Editor for Mathematical Modeling for Risk Analysis: An International Journal, is a co-founder and Area Editor of the Journal of Heuristics, and is on the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems. He is an Edelman Laureate of INFORMS, a member of the American Statistical Association (ASA), and a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA).  In 2007, he won the Society of Toxicology’s Outstanding Published Paper in Risk Assessment Award and the Society for Risk Analysis Outstanding Risk Practitioner Award.  In 2008, his solution to a challenge on “Statistical Methods to Predict Clinical Response” won an InnoCentive Award. His work won the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Best Paper Awards in both 2002 and 2003 for assessment of the uncertain public health risks and benefits of animal antibiotics; and in 2011 for mathematical modeling of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

 

Dr. Cox has taught many graduate and professional courses in risk analysis, decision analysis, forecasting and predictive modeling, data mining, operations research and computational and Bayesian statistics.  He has authored and co-authored over 150 journal articles and book chapters on these fields.  His most recent books are Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems (Springer, 2009) and the Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science (Wiley, 2011), which Dr. Cox co-edited and contributed to.  He has over a dozen U.S. patents on applications of artificial intelligence, signal processing, statistics and operations research methods in telecommunications. His current research interests include computational statistical methods for causal inference in risk analysis, data-mining, and advanced analytics for enterprise risk management, insurance, and public policy applications. 

 

LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR., PH.D

Cox Associates, 503 Franklin Street, Denver, Colorado, 80218

(303)-388-1778 (Phone);  (303)-388-0609 (Fax);  tony@cox-associates.com

 

WORK HISTORY

 

1986 - Present                          President, Cox Associates.  Cox Associates is an independent Denver-

based consulting company specializing in health, safety, and probabilistic risk analysis, applied statistical decision analysis, and operations research modeling for public- and private-sector clients.  Cox Associates develops and applies quantitative risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and decision optimization models and artificial intelligence and computational statistical models to measurably improve client decision-making.  Since 1986, Cox Associates has created health risk models for many chemicals, chemical carcinogens, food-borne pathogens, and animal antimicrobials. Since 1996, its sister company NetAdvantage has also provided quantitative risk modeling, customer data mining, and network planning software solutions to telecommunications companies.

 

1987 - 1996                 Senior Director for U S   West Advanced Technologies in Boulder, Colorado. Headed Business and Engineering Modeling, Communications Services Research, and Network Architecture divisions; secured corporate and external funding commitments for > $11M annual applied research budget; managed twelve director areas and over 100 professional engineers and scientists in the areas of management science and statistical and econometric modeling, optoelectronics, network architectures and technologies, network economics and performance analysis, wireless architecture and engineering, network evolution, product test and development, standards, international projects, digital signal processing, network optimization, and breakthrough projects.

 

1980 - 1986                 Manager, Applied Decision Sciences practice area; Senior Consultant

                                      in Operations Research, Arthur D. Little, Inc., Cambridge, MA

 

1978 - 1979                 Senior Research Associate, American Institutes for Research in the

Social and Behavioral Sciences (AIR), Washington, D.C. and Cambridge, MA

 


 Academic Affiliations

 

 

Past Academic Affiliations

 

  • Clinical Professor, Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, University of Colorado
  • Instructor, Computer Science Department, University of Colorado at Denver. Taught courses on causal inference and computational statistical methods.
  • Faculty, Daniels School of Business, Denver University, 1987, 1997.  Taught courses on statistics and on wireless technology.
  • Faculty, Leeds School of Business, University of Colorado at Boulder, 1993.  Taught courses on decision analysis and statistical decision theory.
  • Faculty, Harvard University Extension School, 1986.  Taught course on decision and risk analysis.

 

EDUCATION

 

1986 - Present                          Professional courses, seminars, and tutorials in statistical optimization,

molecular and cell biology and toxicology, epidemiology, operations research, computational statistics, digital signal processing, image processing, artificial intelligence, biomathematics,  and risk analysis. 

 

1993                             Stanford Executive Program, Stanford Business School

 

1985 - 1986                 M.I.T., Ph.D. in Risk Analysis.  Dissertation:  Mathematical

                                      Foundations of Risk Measurement

 

1983 - 1985                 M.I.T., S.M. in Operations Research, Department of Electrical

                                      Engineering and Computer Science.  Thesis:  Attribution of Risk in

                                      the Presence of Joint Causes.

 

1979 - 1983                 Harvard University, graduate courses in applied mathematics,

                                      theoretical and applied statistics, psychometrics, and decision sciences

 

1975-1978                   Harvard University, A.B. (Mathematical Economics)

 


ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE

 

Graduate Courses Taught

 

·       Health Risk Analysis, University of Colorado Health Sciences Center, 2004; 2006

·       Causality, Inference, and Decision-Making, University of Colorado at Denver, 2002, 2003

·       Decision and Risk Analysis, University of Colorado at Boulder, 1993

·       Statistics for Business, Denver University Graduate School of Business, 1987-88

·       Social Decision and Risk Management, Harvard University Extension School, 1986

 

Professional Courses Taught

 

·       Advances in Health Risk Assessment and Modeling.  Invited lectures presented at Risk Assessment Unit at Evira (Finnish Food Safety Authority) Helsinki.  October 22-23, 2009.

·       Short Course on Causality and Decision Analysis for Risk Analysts. Australia & New Zealand Regional Organisation of the Society for Risk Analysis.  3rd Annual Conference.  Canberra, Australia.  September 29, 2008.  http://www.acera.unimelb.edu.au/sra/SRA2008/Abstract-program.pdf

·       Probabilistic risk analysis:  Assessment, management, and communication.  Harvard Center for Risk Analysis.  Boston, MA.  2000-2004.  Lectures on developing valid probability models from data, subjectivity in data analysis; Bayesian inference in multivariate data sets and causal modeling and influence diagrams for risk analysis.

·       Gordon-Kenan Risk Analysis Summer School in Risk Analysis  August 3-15, 2003
Roger Williams University  Bristol, RI
www.grc.uri.edu/programs/2003/risk.htm

·       Probabilistic risk analysis.  Professional course for Health Canada.  Ottawa, Ontario.  March 25th-28th, 2002.  Lectured on “Using epidemiological data in risk assessment” and on “Causal graphs, Bayesian belief networks, and influence diagrams:  A framework for risk assessment and risk management”.

·       Advanced Methods for Dose-Response Assessment: Bayesian Approaches.  Resources for the Future Conference Center, Washington, D.C. September 18th-20th, 2000

       http://www.rff.org/disc_papers/PDF_files/0115.pdf.

·       "Bayesian methods for assessing uncertain exposures", Workshop on Probabilistic Methods for Risk Assessment.  Society for Risk Analysis, Phoenix, Az, 12-06-98. 

·       Advances in Wireless Technology, Denver University, Fall, 1997

·       Introduction to Decision Analysis for Risk Management, United States Department of Agriculture's APHIS Introductory Risk Analysis course, University of Maryland Conference Center, July 9, 1992.

·       Risk Assessment Modeling, one-day short course given at the USDA Training Center, APHIS Risk Assessment Course, Fort Collins, CO, July 23-24, 1992.

·       Technical Risk Communication, short-course given at the Greenbelt Marriott Hotel, APHIS Advanced Risk Communication Course, Greenbelt, MD, August 20, 1992.

·       Biologically-Based Risk Assessment.  Short course, Society for Risk Analysis, 1991.

 

Science Enrichment Courses for Elementary School Children

 

At the Ricks Center for Gifted Children at the University of Denver (www.du.edu/ricks/)

·       Natural and Artificial Life, Evolution, and Intelligence (Spring, 2010)

·       Science Basics:  Introduction to Cosmology and Earth Science (Spring, 2010)

·       Matter, Energy, and Technology (Spring, 2009)

·       Introduction to Materials Science (Spring, 2009)

·       Basic Cell Biology (Fall, 2008)

 

Dissertations Supervised

 

Dr. Cox has served on S.M. and Ph.D. thesis committees at the University of Denver (S.M. thesis on genetic algorithms) and the University of Colorado (S.M. thesis on innovations in voice messaging, 1995;  Ph.D. thesis on classification trees for learning forecasting models from data, 1999; MS thesis on ant colony optimization for bandwidth packing, 2000; MS project on data mining and causal simulation modeling, 2000;  Ph.D. thesis on uncertainty analysis in epidemiology, 2003.)

 

Research Collaborations

 

At U S WEST Advanced Technologies, Dr. Cox initiated and led collaborative research projects with top researchers at many universities, including

·      Harvard University (projects on combinatorial optimization and on interactive mixed natural language and graphics dialogue interfaces, with Professor Barbara Grosz)

·      Columbia University (dynamic traffic routing with Professor David Yao)

·      Syracuse University (machine comprehension of scientific abstracts)

·      Oregon Graduate Institute (breakthroughs in neural net and digital signal processing technologies for automated speech recognition with Professor Ron Cole). 

 

In 1992, his collaboration with mathematicians at the University of Colorado at Denver on combinatorial optimization heuristics for network routing was selected by the Colorado Advanced Software Institute (CASI) as one of only two projects (out of 30) that exemplified this state-funded Institute's major goals: outstanding industry-university technical research with high commercial value.  In 1993 and 1994, his collaborations with UCD on new data mining algorithms and pattern recognition techniques for risk analysis and fault diagnosis algorithms were the only projects to receive CASI's award.  Dr. Cox has also collaborated with colleagues at Bell Labs and the University of California on fundamental research in multistate reliability and biomathematical modeling.

 

Conference Sessions Chaired

 

Dr. Cox has chaired many conference sessions, including the following:

·       Novel Approaches in Dose Response.  Society for Risk Analysis 2010 Annual Meeting. Salt Lake City.  December 7, 2010.  (Substituted for Dr. Mitchell Small as chair.)

·       Sustainable Value Chains. Institute for Operations Research and Management Science annual conference, Austin, TX, 2010. http://meetings2.informs.org/Conf/Austin2010/images/split%20pdfs/tracks/Austin%20Service%20Science%20Sections.pdf

·       Security and Resilience in Telecommunications Networks. Institute for Operations Research and Management Science annual conference, Washington, D.C., 2008. https://informs.emeetingsonline.com/emeetings/formbuilder/clustersessiondtl.asp?csnno=8108&mmnno=176&ppnno=33560

·       Animal Pathogens and Human Exposure. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference, San Antonio, TX, 2007.  (Substituted for Dr. Michael McElvaine as chair.)

·       Alternative Approaches to Risk Assessment. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference, San Antonio, TX, 2007.  http://birenheide.com/sra/2007AM/program/

·       Complexity in Modeling Mode-of-Action and Other Sources of Non-Linearity In Risk.  Society for Risk Analysis annual conference, Baltimore, MD December, 2006.

·       Statistical Methods:  Uncertainty, Confidence Limits, etc.  Society for Risk Analysis annual conference, Palm Springs, December 5-8, 2004.

·       Toxicology. Session at Non-Linear Dose-Response Relationships in Biology, Toxicology, and Medicine:  An International Conference.  (University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, May 28-30th, 2003)

·       Special Applications in Industry and Government.  (Society for Risk Analysis, 2002)

·       Market Modeling and Policy (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 2002)

·       Wireless Network Planning (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 2002)

·       Optical Networks (8th International Conference on Telecommunications Systems, 2000.)

·       Telecommunications (INFORMS, 2000)

·       Marketing (INFORMS, 1999)

·       Forecasting and Economics (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 1998)

·       Stochastic Optimization (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, SIAM, 1996)

·       Planning Heuristics for Telecommunications Networks (INFORMS, 1996). 

·       Risk and Uncertainty

·       Artificial Intelligence Heuristics for Optimization

·       Heuristic Optimization for Process Improvement. 

·       Cluster chair for INFORMS sessions on "Heuristic Optimization and Learning"  (1994). 

 

Other Academic Experience

 

From 1987-1992, Dr. Cox served on the Industry Advisory Board of the Mathematics Department at the University of Colorado at Denver, where he is now Honorary Full Professor of Mathematics and on the Faculty of the Center for Computational Mathematics.  He has given invited talks on advanced topics in risk analysis, telecommunications engineering and management, and computer science to faculties and graduate seminars at many top universities.  He is Area Editor (Mathematical Modeling) of Risk Analysis:  An International Journal and is Area Editor (Real-World Applications) of the Journal of Heuristics, which he helped to found in 1995. He is on the Editorial Board of the International Journal of Operations Research and Information Systems. He has reviewed many academic research proposals for the National Science Foundation's  Decision, Risk, and Management Science program and SBIR technology proposals for NSF and other agencies.  He has lectured on biomathematics, cancer risk modeling, data mining, and other statistical, mathematical, and analytics topics at the University of Colorado.  Dr. Cox co-taught a short-course on Biologically-Based Risk Assessment at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting in 1991; a workshop on Probabilistic Methods in Risk Assessment at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting in 1998; and taught a Short Course on Causality and Decision Analysis for Risk Analysts at the Australia & New Zealand Regional Organisation of the Society for Risk Analysis in 2008.


CONSULTING EXPERIENCE

 

Examples of applied statistics, epidemiology, operations research, and health risk analysis projects completed by Dr. Cox in the past decade include the following:

 

RISK ANALYSIS AND APPLIED STATISTICS CONSULTING EXPERIENCE

 

·       For the Institute of Medicine (IOM), served as a reviewer for the IOM Draft on Scientific Standards for Studies of Modified Risk Tobacco Products, examining the types of biomarker data and other scientific information needed to demonstrate to FDA that new products have reduced risks (2011)

·       Served as expert reviewer for EPA’s Draft Microbial Risk Assessment Guideline: Pathogenic Microorganisms with Focus on Food and Water (2011)

·       For the U.S. EPA, served as a member of the Science Advisory Board (SAB) for Dioxin (2010-11)

·       For the National Pork Board, prepared comments on a Russian risk analysis of tetracycline residues in foods. These comments provided the technical basis for the USG’s position in trilateral trade negotiations with the EU and Russian Federation (2011)  

·       For the Colorado state police, analyzed the frequency and severity of car accidents by time of day, time of year, driver age and sex, driver behavior (e.g., alcohol use, use of safety devices), and types of air bags and oher equipment.  Developed an injury prediction model that successfully predicted risks of injury, given an accident, from less than 20% to over 70%, based on preventable causes. (2011)

·       For the National Mining Association, developed a statistical critique of a proposed quantitative risk assessment for respirable coal mine dust (2010-11)

·       For the American Chemistry Council’s Crystalline Silica Panel, modeled exposure-response relationships for inflammation-mediated lung diseases and lung cancer risk caused by exposure to quartz dust and crystalline silica. Presented key results and references to Canadian regulators in August, 2010. Health Canada subsequently proposed to regulate crystalline silica as a threshold carcinogen, breaking new ground in science-based  regulatory risk analysis for this compound. (2010)

·       For the National Pork Board, assessed human health risks of multidrug-resistant “superbug” bacterial infections originating from pigs (2010)

·       For Philip Morris International, developed a quantitative model of age-specific risks of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as a function of smoking history (2008-2009).  Clarified the interaction of molecular biological pathways in forming positive feedback loops that trigger and sustain this disease.

·       For the National Pork Board, reviewed statistical and causal analyses of infant mortality and livestock production (2009)

·       For the American Chemistry Council’s Crystalline Silica Panel, critically reviewed draft regulatory risk assessments of crystalline silica as a toxic substance and possible lung carcinogen (2009)

·       For Alpharma and Phibro Animal Health, assessed potential human health risks from use of tetracycline drugs in food animals (2009)

·       Member of National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis.  (2006-8) http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/CommitteeView.aspx?key=48682

·       Member of Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board (EPA SAB) on Asbestos. http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabpeople.nsf/WebCommitteesSubcommittees/Asbestos%20Committee

·       Member of Institute of Medicine’s (IOM) Committee on Aerospace Medicine and the Medicine of Extreme Environments (2006-8), Committee to Review NASA’s Space Flight Health Standards

·       For Comcast Cable, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to develop a customer churn predictive risk assessment model that successfully predicts which customers are most likely to drop services and accounts – months before the drops occur, while there is still time to intervene.  The model was statistically compared to existing commercial predictive models and found to be more than twice as effective in identifying high-risk customers early on.

·       Delegate to First Session of the Codex Ad Hoc Intergovernmental Task Force on Antimicrobial Resistance held in Seoul, Republic of Korea, 23-26 October 2007.

·       For Xcel Energy, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to develop a credit risk assessment model that predicts which customer accounts are likely to become bad debts six months or more in advance, when early intervention is still possible and profitable (2007)

·       For Qwest Communications, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to analyze the amounts of time that employees spend managing internal communications (e-mails, meetings, conference calls, etc.) and identifying opportunities to improve internal communications efficiency (2006).

·       For Philip Morris International, developed a quantitative model of age-specific risks of lung cancer as a function of smoking history.  Estimated the potential reduction in lung cancer risk for smokers if cadmium were removed from tobacco products. (2005-2007)

·       For Qwest Communications, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to quantify customer interest in and willingness to use improved web portals to manage telecommunications services (2006-7).

·       For a sand and gravel company, examined the usefulness, for estimating risks and setting prioriries, of aggregate exposure metrics for mixtures of asbestos and non-asbestos fibers and particles (2006)

·       For a telecommunications equipment manufacturer, created a model to predict the numbers and types of equipment failures expected in future years, based on historical failure data for equipment items manufactured in different years. (2006)

·       For a grass seed company, assessed the quantitative risks of gene flow from genetically modified grasses into the environment via pollen and seeds (2006).  This approach was subsequently adopted by the United States District Court for the District of Columbia as a basis for risk calculations (http://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/pubs/GTBC_Doc_94_Opinion%202-5-07.pdf)

·       For a homeowner’s association, quantified the probable number and timing of future failures in copper pipes due to thermogalvanic corrosion.  The model correctly predicted the near statistical certainty of additional pipe failures (2006).

·       For the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), advised on modeling potential failures and threats to spent nuclear fuel rods stored in different types of containers.  This work contributed to the 2006 NAS report  Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage, http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309096472/html/R4.html.

·       For a large pharmaceutical company, analyzed Phase 3 clinical trial data and showed that a major drug is highly effective in reversing symptoms of a disease in patients in both the short run (within 1-2 weeks) and over a longer time frame.  This statistical analysis of the time course of responses and the clusters of different response histories among patients explained several previously unresolved puzzles and made the meaning of the data clear for company statisticians and decision-makers. (2005)

·       For a law firm specializing in construction defect litigation, developed an approach to sampling available homes or units to support efficient statistical inference from available data, even when some homes or units cannot be inspected. (2005)

·       For Phibro Animal Health, developed a systems dynamics model of the evolution of illnesses and resistance in human and animal populations. (2005/2006)

·       For the American Chemistry Council, assessed the potential human health risks associated with methyl bromide (2005). 

·       For Philip Morris Intenational, developed new ways to integrate partial knowledge of causal mechanisms of lung carcinogenesis with statistical information (mainly epidemiological and molecular epidemiological data) to obtain quantitative bounds on the fraction of lung cancers that can be prevented by removing specific components of exposure and/or blocking specific causal pathways. (2004-2006)

·       For the cattle industry group R-CALF, developed a value of information (VOI) model for assessing the economic value of tracking Canadian cattle in the US in light of recent BSE findings (2004).

·       For the Animal Health Institute, developed a Rapid Risk Rating Technique (RRRT) to quantify the human health impacts of food-borne pathogens and animal antimicrobial uses (1Q-04)

·       For Elanco Animal Health, served on an Expert Panel to develop a mathematical model of the human health benefits of decreasing microbial loads in food animals (2003-4)

·       For Phibro Animal Health, developed a quantitative risk assessment of the human health risks and benefits from continued use of virginiamycin in chickens and pigs (2002-4)

·       For the Animal Health Institute, served on an Expert Panel to review human health risks from animal antibiotics (2002-3); developed a farm-to-fork risk simulation model for Campylobacter risks (2000-2002)

·       For the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, served as an external expert reviewer for the EPA’s “Perchlorate Environmental Contamination:  Toxicological Review and Risk Characterization” Draft External Review Document (March, 2002).

·       For the World Health Organization (WHO), served as an external expert reviewer for a Consultation on Campylobacter risk assessment, in Geneva (August, 2001)

·       For the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), (a) Reviewed proposed approaches to antimicrobial risk assessment (1999) http://www.fda.gov/cvm/antimicrobial/tonycox/index.htm; and (b) Proposed a decision-analytic alternative to FDA’s threshold approach for managing risks of resistant strains of pathogenic bacteria due to use of antibiotics in animals (2001). The FDA at first strongly rejected Dr. Cox’s advice and testimony on how to do antimicrobial risk assessment correctly (with considerable acrimony, in the context of enrofloxacin litigation), but has subsequently had Dr. Cox visit to discuss several antimicrobial risk assessments, and has sought Dr. Cox’s views on how to do better risk analysis.

·       For the U.S. EPA, served as expert external reviewer and contributor to Review of Uncertainty and Variability Analysis In IRIS for Eight Substances.  http://www.epa.gov/ncea/hlthfx_iris.htm

·       Created computer simulation models (PBPK and PD) of dose-time-response relations for low-level exposures to chemical carcinogens, for Exxon Biomedical Sciences (EBSI).  Developed an artificial intelligence method for improving prediction of likely human chemical carcinogens, also for EBSI.

·       Created a discrete-event stochastic simulation model of the human health risks associated with Ciprofloxacin resistance in Camplyobacter jejuni induced by use of Enrofloxacin in chickens, for the Animal Health Institute (AHI). http://www.cvmbs.colostate.edu/cveadss/schedule/SchedulePage.htm

·       Critically reviewed epidemiological studies of diesel exhaust and human lung cancer risk, for the Engine Manufacturers Association. 

·       For the American Petroleum Institute (API), created a computer simulation model of bone marrow and blood cell toxicity caused by cyclophosphamide, an immunosuppressive drug.  Designed laboratory experiments to validate the model's predictions.  Analyzed clinical and laboratory data to test model's predictive validity.  Prepared a software release so that other scientists could use the model.

·       Reviewed literature on air pollution and human lung cancer risks, for the American Petroleum Institute.

·       Applied adaptive spatial sampling to optimize search and clean-up efforts for remediating residential properties around an abandoned hazardous waste site (for AlliedSignal)

·       Reassessed human cancer risks from 1,3-butadiene using pharmacokinetic modeling to adjust for interspecies differences in internal doses of epoxybutene (for the Chemical Manufacturers Association)

·       Reassessed the human leukemia risks from benzene exposure using a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to calculate internal dose (for the American Petroleum Association)

·       Reviewed design of an initiation-promotion experiment for studying the potential carcinogenicity of a rubber additive, for Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company.

·       Developed a general physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling software tool for rapidly developing high-quality PBPK models (with ENSR Consulting and Engineering, Inc.)

·       Reviewed artificial intelligence approaches to characterizing uncertain health risks using weight

of evidence, nonmonotonic, and other uncertainty analysis (for Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

·       Assessed potential health risks associated with occupational exposure to herbicides among

roadside workers, using pharmacokinetic models, for a Fortune 100 chemical manufacturer.

·       Recommendation of cleanup priorities for a large hazardous waste site in Canada

·       Developed a prototype computer model for biologically based risk assessment of chemical carcinogen risks, for the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API)

·       Reviewed new biostatistical and "biologically based" approaches to cancer risk analysis, for the

California Department of Health Services

·       Reviewed regulatory history of benzene risk assessments and of biomathematical approaches to

modeling leukemogenesis for the Western Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute

·       Prototype computer modeling of the AIDS epidemic (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)

·       Designed a 2-year bioassay experiment for isoprene.  Analyzed and reported the resulting experimental data for a multi-client, multinational industry group coordinated by Exxon Biomedical Sciences.

·       Accident risk analysis and consequence analysis of a petrochemical storage facility in California, for a

California-based environmental consulting firm

·       Implemented a Macintosh version of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for benzene pharmacokinetics and total metabolism in rodents and humans, for the API

·       Explored new mathematical approaches and conceptual frameworks for dealing with scientific uncertainties in biologically-based risk assessment, for the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA)

·       Created an interactive data analysis and graphics package for determining the degree of worker protection provided by different respirators, filters, and face masks (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)

·       Microeconomic and applied probability modeling of insurance company business risks for use in

       tax litigation (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)

·       Critically reviewed a transportation risk analysis for liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations in the

       St. Lawrence seaway. 

·       Reviewed progress since 1985 in using decision analysis for accident risk assessments.

·       Implemented an experimental "intelligent" data base management system for chemical health effects

       data bases (with Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc.)

·       Uncertainty analysis of PBPK modeling and risk analyses, accounting for model uncertainties and

       population heterogeneity, for the American Industrial Health Council.

·       Developed new statistical techniques to predict cancer risks associated with mineral oils, for Mobil Oil.

 

 

DATA MINING AND STATISTICAL MODELING AND PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS EXPERIENCE

 

·       For Rogers Communications, developed causal models of customer satisfaction; identified high-impact interventions for improving customer satisfaction; helped to develop achievable targets and strategies for improving customer experiences in different channels (2011)

·       Delivered a statistical analysis of the causal drivers of customer satisfaction to top executives at Comcast Cable; identified realistic targets and interventions for improving customer satisfaction (2010-11).

·       For a top cable company, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to deliver a predictive model that identifies which customers are most likely to drop accounts, well before the event and with much higher accuracy than previous models. (2008)

·       For an energy utility, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to deliver a predictive model of customer bad debt and account write-offs that greatly extended the lead time over which high-risk customers could be identified and targeted for intervention. (2007)

·       For a telecommunications company, worked in partnership with North Highland consulting company to develop a predictive model of customer marketing channel choice, and usage as a function of quanlity of channel experience (e.g., for web site, call center, retail store, and other channels.)  Used the model to quantify financial impacts of improving web-based customer care. (2006)

·       Also in partnership with North Highland consulting company, analyzed employee survey data for a major telecommunications provider and quantified patterns of internal communications (conference calls, managing e-mail, company news letters and bulletins, meetings, etc.); time spent on these activities by employees with different job roles and in different VP areas; and potential to reduce employee burden and improve the value and efficiency of internal communications. (2006)

·       For a European wireless telecommunications provider, analyzed customer data to help develop more predictive segments; held a one-day intensive course in Brussels on advanced statistical models and methods for quantifying customer value in the short and long runs, based on probability and statistics models of customer behaviors in response to company offers.  (2005)

·        In 2004, delivered to an international telecommunications company a needs-based predictive segmentation model for cell phone customers.

·        In 2003, in partnership with North Highland consulting company, delivered to a directory company a credit scoring and data mining model for identifying customers at greatest risk of defaulting on Yellow Pages agreements.

·        In April, 2002, delivered to an internet services provider (ISP) a decision-support model for predicting customers with the highest churn potential and recommending specific interventions to reduce churn.  This system was found by the client to reduce churn by over 40% within 4 months among at-risk customers.

·        In March, 2002, delivered to a financial services company a set of predictive clusters for simultaneously predicting churn, upsell, and cross-sell potentials for existing customers.  The predictive validity, stability, and high practical value of the predictive clusters were confirmed by the client in 2003 and 2004.

·        In October, 2001, completed a study to identify ways to predict which competitive local exchange carrier (CLEC) customers would experience the most revenue growth in the next quarter and which would be most likely to drop accounts.

·       In August, 2001, completed an analysis of insurance customer data showing that combining information from homeowner, auto, and other insurance lines using classification trees and transition models could dramatically improve accurate identification of cross-sell, up-sell, and retention opportunities.

·       In December, 2000, completed a study of purchasing patterns among large business customers for Qwest communications. The results show that a few key products, together with factors such as account age, predict likely stability or churn of customers, as well as likely growth potential.  

·       In 2Q, 2000, delivered to statistical analyses of the effects of U S WEST and competitor advertising and publicity (including brand/service commercials, direct mail,  and news  stories) on customer ratings of value and loyalty.

·       Analyzed marketing data for AT&T-TCI to determine which current cable customers are most likely to switch to digital cable in the next quarter, based on current cable, telephony, and demographic risk factors.

·       Created and validated a statistical (semi-Markov state transition) risk model to predict product and account attrition among U S WEST customers. Delivered to the CRMS group in U S WEST Communications a predictive model for identifying the likely future purchasing, product-drop, and account disconnect behaviors of individual customers. The new model has significantly greater predictive power than previous ones, achieving lifts of several hundred percent on the task of predicting which 10% of customers are most likely to buy specific products in the next few months.

·       Developed new statistical optimal matching procedures to decide which products to offer which customers to maximize average revenue yield and lifetime revenue value for U S WEST Communications.  Demonstrated a potential increase of over 40% for short-term revenues.  15% revenue increase was achieved in a preliminary in-market trial of intelligent scripting.

·       Used a new causal modeling and data-mining technique to predict likely future product purchases from past purchase data and demographics, for U S WEST Consumer Services Group.

·       Created a new forecasting model for application to short-tem and cross-sectional market data.  The new method combined classification tree analysis with compartmental flow simulation.  Applied to real data, it successfully allowed growth in demand for access lines to be predicted as accurately using less than 6 months of data as was previously possible using over 5 years of data with conventional time series forecasting methods.  The forecasts were used by U S WEST Communications in 1997.

·       Created and implemented a combined machine-learning/transition simulation forecasting technique to use detailed call records to more accurately predict traffic loads arriving at different locations within a wireless network for PrimeCo Personal Communications Services Ltd.

·       Developed a simulation-based model of cable customer transitions among different behaviors (adding and dropping basic and enhanced cable services, switching among services and locations, etc.) for TCI.

·       Analyzed cable franchise data for over 400 TCI cable systems to identify predictors of service quality perceptions and churn.  Successfully identified unexpected demographic predictors of profitability and satisfaction.

·       Analyzed macroeconomic data and survey data for a consortium of Indonesian companies to predict the penetration of telephony, PCs, internet services, and cable over the next 15 years.

 

CONSTRUCTION DEFECT LITIGATION SUPPORT EXPERIENCE

 

Dr. Cox has testified as an expert statistician in numerous construction defect cases, typically seeking to clarify the types of valid statistical inferences about risks and defects that can be drawn from limited sample data.  Dr. Cox has been deposed on statistical issues in the following construction defect cases since 2006.

·       Amezcua/Pua v. DR Horton  Deposition in Arizona, 2/2/2010

·       Amukamara/Larissa by Forecast Deposition in Arizona, 4/10/2007

·       Arrants v. D.R. Horton Deposition in Arizona, 8/3/2010

·       Aspen Creek  Deposition in Arizona, 5/22/07

·       D.R. Horton, Inc.-Denver vs. Canyon Creek Condominium Association, Inc. Deposition in Colorado, 12/10/2010

·       Centercrest Deposition in Arizona, 3/14/2006

·       Chaignot v. Beazer Deposition in Arizona, 4/22/2010

·       Cummings v. Lenar Deposition in Arizona, 9/21/2006

·       Dancy Deposition in Arizona, 11/09/2006

·       Ensley et al. vs. Forecast Homes Deposition and trial in Arizona, 11/09/2009

·       Frye Park Townhomes HOA v. Patterson Development LP Deposition in Arizona, 4/22/2010

·       Goree v. Monterey Homes Deposition in Arizona, 11/30/2006

·       Greenwood Estates Deposition in Arizona, 10/11/2010

·       Landmark Towers Deposition in Arizona, 7/29/11

·       Paloma Paseo Deposition in Arizona, 10/13/2007

·       Premier Deposition in Arizona, 3/10/2009

·       Raintree Deposition in Arizona, 8/3/2007

·       Sun City Grand testified to arbitration panel, 7/22/2011

·       Terravita Deposition in Arizona, 10/6/2006

·       Windrose East Deposition in Arizona, 3/10/2009


TELECOMMUNICATIONS NETWORK DESIGN AND OPTIMIZATION EXPERIENCE

 

After leaving U S WEST Advanced Technologies, Dr. Cox has led the following projects.

·       SONET-DWDM and mesh planning tools that allow for unspecified (any-to-any) demands and incremental planning with ring, mesh, or hybrid protection and resilience against multiple simultaneous fiber cuts or other failures (2005-2011).

·       Led delivery of a hybrid ring/mesh architecture network planning software tool to Sprint (2004)

·       Led delivery of a combined SONET-DWDM mesh topology design tool to Tellabs, Inc. (2003)

·       Developed network planning, optimization, and risk analysis tools for a satellite company (3Q-02)

·       Created a competitive cost model for Sprint’s national optical network (1Q-3Q, 2002)

·       Delivered a Passive Optical Network (PON) configurator tool to a PON equipment vendor (1Q-02)

·       Delivered to Sprint a port-level SONET ring planning tool.  An initial version of the tool was successfully used in creating Sprint’s 2002 network build plan (4Q-01)

·       Delivered to Redback Networks of a card-level SONET ring planning and optimization tool (3Q-01).  This software tool is now marketed commercially by Redback Networks.

·       Delivered to Sprint a dark fiber network configuration planning tool, incorporating a proprietary genetic algorithm, that reduced costs of metro-area networks by over 50% compared to manual solutions. (1Q-01 for fiber-only version, 3Q-01 for version with wireless link options)

·       Delivered to Tellium a Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) mesh topology design tool, marketed commercially as StarNet Planner. (4Q-00)

·       Delivered to Kestrel Solutions a SONET Ring Planning tool for optimizing placement of optical add-drop multiplexer components in optical ring networks. (3Q-00)

·       Created a new design for a backhaul network in Colorado that saved AT&T Wireless over 20% on their monthly backhaul charges.  The new design, based on  large-scale integer programming optimization, re-assigned traffic to hubs and recommended adding two new hubs to reduce system costs. (1999)

·       For Sprint PCS, analyzed market demand forecasts and switching and interconnect costs.  Led development of a a 20-period network growth and capacity planning and optimization software model.  Identified a way to save over $1M (approximately 10%) of network capital expenses for a small city by reconfiguring the initial choice of switch modules to allow a more efficient capacity expansion growth path (1997).

·       For Cox California PCS, led development of a backhaul network optimization program, solved via a new genetic algorithm, that reduced monthly backhaul costs by over 10% through more efficient of digital circuits to hubs and more economical use of SONET facilities.

·       For PrimeCo Personal Communications Services, Ltd., created an optimization model of Multi-Channel Controller Card assignment and inventory management to reduce the costs of expanding network capacity through base station capacity upgrades.


PREVIOUS INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE

 

Before starting Cox Associates in 1986, Dr. Cox consulted in statistics, health and safety risk analysis, operations research, computer science, and econometrics for Arthur D. Little, Inc.  He managed multimillion dollar AI risk analysis software development projects for the U S Air Force and led cases covering environmental fate and transport modeling of pollutants, risk analyses for transportation and processing facilities, reliability modeling of complex systems, and a variety of product development, insurance, R&D, computer security, and electric utility applications.  He also acted as an expert statistician and economist in support of several contract, tort, and administrative law cases and contributed to projects on USDA Standards and Grades for food products, statistical analysis of cigarette smoking data, safety of different types of protective masks, etc. 

 

In 1984, Dr. Cox won Arthur D. Little's Presidential Award for outstanding contributions to the development of R&D planning and risk assessment methodologies for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). 

 

Prior to joining Arthur D. Little, Inc., in 1979, Dr. Cox worked in societal risk analysis, experimental cognitive psychology of text processing, and applied statistics, at the American Institutes for Research (AIR).  He also co-authored a book on the effects of court sanctions on the risks of chronic delinquent behavior, featured on Good Morning America in 1979 and still widely cited (e.g., http://www.ncpa.org/bg/bg148/bg148b.htm, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/crime/wilson.htm,).

 

 

OTHER TECHNOLOGY EXPERTISE

 

Dr. Cox was U S WEST Advanced Technologies' expert on statistics and econometrics, artificial intelligence, decision and risk analysis, and digital signal processing technologies, emphasizing pattern recognition, spoken language understanding, and machine-learning applications. 

 

He has appeared on CNN and has been interviewed by KGNU Radio, the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and various newspapers about profitable business applications of these and related technologies.  He frequently represented U S WEST to regulators and utility commissions in explaining the purpose, value, and accomplishments of U S WEST's work these areas.  Dr. Cox has been interviewed many times about topics related to human health risks of chemicals and antibiotics.  A presentation by Dr. Cox on animal antibiotic risks is described in the Science section of The New York Times (2006) http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/21/science/21cafe.html

 

Dr. Cox has also been interviewed by The Washington Post (2005). The Denver Post (2005) and other national newspapers about potential risks of BSE (“mad cow” disease) in the US from imported Canadian cattle. (http://www.mymontana.com/?template=mymon_news_art&nid=3217; http://www.mycattle.com/news/dsp_national_article.cfm?storyid=16360).  He has been interviewed and quoted on a variety of topics related to quantitative risk assessment and modeling, including dose-response hormesis (http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/esthag-w/2006/oct/science/rr_hormesis.html), infectious diseases, threats to children’s health from chemicals, resistance to animal antibiotics (2010) (www.feedstuffsfoodlink.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=news&mod=News&mid=9A02E3B96F2A415ABC72CB5F516B4C10&tier=3&nid=8E922C15C43F43D39AB19CE4469A12BE), and terrorism risk analysis (2010) (http://www.publicintegrity.org/daily_watchdog/entry/2428/). 


PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES

 

Professional Societies

·       Society for Risk Analysis (SRA).  Fellow since 1993.  (Fellowship recognizes lifetime contributions to the field of risk analysis)

·       Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), Edelman Laureate since 2006 (recognizing outstanding achievement in the practice of OR/MS.). 

·       Member of the American Statistical Association since 1993.

 

Positions Held

·       Treasurer of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 2007-8; Treasurer-Elect, 2006

·       Elected as one of two Counselors for the 400-member ORSA Special Interest Group on Telecommunications, 1992

·       Member of the International Life Sciences Institute's (ILSI's) Risk Science Institute Cancer Dose-Response Working Group in 1991-1992. 

·       Counselor, Rocky Mountain Chapter of the SRA, 1990-1991

·       Secretary and co-founder, New England Chapter of the SRA, 1985-86

 

Selected Awards and Honors

·   2011 Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis, for A causal model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk. http://www.sra.org/journal_best_paper_awards.php

·   2008 Innocentive Challenge Award. In 2008, Dr. Cox's proprietary solution to a challenge on “Statistical Methods to Predict Clinical Response” won an InnoCentive Award from Eli Lilly (http://www.innocentive.com/servlets/project/ProjectInfo.po?s=AW).

·   2007 Outstanding Practitioner Award, recognizing excellent performance in the practice of risk analysis.  Awarded by the Society for Risk Analysis. San Antonio, TX, December, 2007.

·   Outstanding Published Paper in 2006 Demonstrating an Application of Risk Assessment, awarded by the Risk Assessment Specialty Section of the Society of Toxicology, March, 2007.

·   Franz Edelman Finalist Award, for achievement in the practice of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, awarded by the Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), 2006. 

·   Best Reviewer, Decision Sciences, for Risk Analysis:  An International Journal.  2006

·   Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis, 2003 www.sra.org/newsletter/news0204.pdf

·   Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis, 2002, www.sra.org/news0203.pdf

·   POMS National Award Finalist for paper: Cox LA, Bell G, Glover F.  A new learning approach to process improvement in a telecommunications company. Production and Operations Management, 4, 3, 217-227, 1995.  Production and Operations Management Society

·   INFORMS Prize for best real-world applications of operations research having substantial business value, 1994

·   Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis, 1993 

 

At U S WEST Dr. Cox also received many awards.  Under his leadership, in 1994, U S WEST won the Operations Research Society of America's prestigious INFORMS Prize, awarded annually to the company in the world that has best applied operations research methods in innovative ways that have had profound business impact.  In 1991 Dr. Cox won U S WEST's Special Achievement Award for developing new approaches to business risk analysis widely applied by U S WEST International. In 1992, he won the U S WEST's Chairman's Award and two Special Achievement Awards for innovations in network design credited with saving U S WEST over $100M.  In 1994, Dr. Cox won U S WEST's new President's Club and Circle of Excellence Awards for innovations in probabilistic analysis of customer choice behavior.


LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR. - PATENTS

 

Dr. Cox has applied risk analysis, statistical decision theory, and optimization principles to several fields in new ways. He is inventor or co-inventor of the following innovations.

 

Speech Synthesis Using Perceptual Linear Prediction Parameters   (U.S. Pat. # 5,165,008, awarded November 17, 1992.  Canadian Patent #2,074,418 awarded December 12, 1995.)

 

Method and System for Optimized Logistics Planning   (U.S. Pat. # 5,450,317, awarded September 12, 1995,  http://www.patents.ibm.com/details?pn=US05450317__)

 

Method and System for Designing Least Cost Local Access Networks

(U.S. Patent #5,508,999, awarded April 16, 1996.)

 

Method and System for Planning and Installing Communication Networks.  

(U.S. Patent #5,515,367, awarded May 7, 1996.)

 

Automated system and method for voice processing. 

(U.S. Patent #5655006, awarded August 5, 1997.)

 

Method and system for identifying a corrupted speech message signal.

(U.S. Patent #5,684,921, awarded November 4, 1997.)

 

Method for providing a linguistically competent dialogue with a computerized service representative. (U.S. Patent #5,685,000, awarded November 4, 1997.)

 

Method and system for developing network analysis and modeling with graphical objects.  (U.S. Patent #5,715,432, awarded February 3, 1998)

 

Adaptive knowledge base of complex information through interactive voice dialogue. 

(U.S. Patent # 5,774,860, awarded June 30, 1998)

 

Method and system for linguistic command processing in a video server environment. 

(U.S. Patent #5,832,439, awarded November 3, 1998)

 

Architecture and method for providing interactive broadband products and services using existing telephone plant.  (U.S. Patent #5,857,142, awarded January 4, 1999.) http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/5857142.html

 

Method for annotating and editing voice messages via acoustic bullet points.  (U.S. Patent #5,943,402, awarded August 24th, 1999, http://www.patents.ibm.com/details?pn=US05943402__)

 

Calendar system with direct and telephony networked voice control interface.  (U.S. Patent #6,009,398, awarded December 28th, 1999, http://www.patents.ibm.com/patlist?icnt=US&patent_number=6009398&x=27&y=11 )

 

Method and system for designing a cellular communication system.  (U.S. Patent #6,181,917, awarded January 30th, 2001, http://www.delphion.com/cgi-bin/viewpat.cmd/US06181917, http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/6181917.html )


LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR., PH.D.

SELECTED PUBLICATIONS

 

Selected Books, Reports, and Monographs

 

Cox L.A. and Greenberg M.R.  (Eds) Advances in Terrorism Risk Analysis.  On-Line Special Issue of Risk Analysis: An International Journal.  Wiley.  2011.  http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924/homepage/custom_copy.htm

 

Institute of Medicine, Board on Health Sciences Policy: Prepositioned Medical Countermeasures for the Public.  Prepositioning Antibiotics for Anthrax. National Academies Press.  Washington, D.C., 2011.www.iom.edu/Reports/2011/Prepositioning-Antibiotics-for-Anthrax/Report-Brief.aspx

 

Cox, L.A., Jr.  Risk Analysis of Complex and Uncertain Systems.  Springer.  New York.  2009.  www.springer.com/business/operations+research/book/978-0-387-89013-5.  Reviewed at http://interfaces.journal.informs.org/cgi/reprint/40/4/330.pdf. 

 

Cox, L.A., Jr.  Quantitative Health Risk Analysis Methods: Modeling the Human Health Impacts of Antibiotics Used in Food Animals.  Springer.  New York.  2006. 

 

National Research Council. Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis, Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment: A Call for Change. National Academies Press.  Washington, D.C., 2008.  http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12206#toc

 

National Research Council. Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage.  National Academies Press.  Washington, D.C., 2006. 

 

Raucher R, et al., Quantifying Public Health Risk Reduction Benefits  American Water Works Association, 2002. 

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Risk Analysis:  Foundations, Models and Methods.  Springer.  New York.  2001. International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, 45.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F. Ricci (eds), New Risks:  Issues and Management.  Plenum Press, 1990.

 

Murray, C.A., and L.A. Cox, Jr., Beyond Probation:  Juvenile Corrections and the Chronic Delinquent.  Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA, 1979.

 

Encyclopedias

 

Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science.  2011.  www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html. Area Editor, Decision Analysis, Risk Analysis, and Game Theory sections. 

 

Wiley Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2008  www.wiley.com//legacy/wileychi/risk/edBoardSection.html Area  Editor, Risk Management Section.


Journal Publications, Book Chapters, Etc.

 

Cox LA Jr. Evaluating and improving risk formulas for allocating limited budgets to expensive risk-reduction opportunities. Risk Analysis. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. Reassessing the human health benefits from cleaner air.  Risk Analysis. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. Low-dose nonlinear effects of smoking on coronary heart disease risk.  Dose-Response. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. Dose-response thresholds for progressive diseases. Dose-Response. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. Hormesis for fine particulate matter (PM2.5).  Dose-Response. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. .Clarifying types of uncertainty: when are models accurate, and uncertainties small?  Risk Analysis. 2011 Oct;31(10):1530-3.

 

Cox LA Jr. An exposure-response threshold for lung diseases and lung cancer caused by crystalline silica. Risk Analysis. 2011 Oct;31(10):1543-60.

 

Cox LA Jr. Foundations of decision theory.  Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2011 http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html

 

Cox L.A. Jr.  Managing R&D and risky projects.  Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2011

http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/Section/id-397132.html

 

Cox LA Jr., WA Huber.  Why risk is not variance.  Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2011 http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html

 

Cox LA Jr. A causal model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk.

Risk Analysis. 2011 Jan;31(1):38-62. (Winner, 2011 Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis) http://www.sra.org/journal_best_paper_awards.php

 

Brown GG, Cox Jr LA. Making terrorism risk analysis less harmful and more useful: Another try.  Risk Analysis.  2011 Feb;31(2):193-5

 

Brown G, Cox LA Jr. How probabilistic risk assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts.  Risk Analysis. 2011 Feb;31(2):196-204

 

Mathers J, Flick S, Cox LA Jr. Longer-duration uses of tetracyclines and penicillins in U.S. food-producing animals: Indications and microbiologic effects..  Environment International. 2011 Jul;37(5):991-1004

 

Ricci PF, Straja SR, Cox LA Jr. Changing the risk paradigms can be good for our health: J-Shaped, linear and threshold dose-response models.  Dose-Response. 2011

 

Cox LA Jr. The impossibility of defining “frequency” satisfactorily, revisited. Risk Analysis. 2010 Oct;30(10):1464-5.

 

Cox LA Jr.  Regression versus causation, revisited. Risk Analysis. 2010 April; 30(4):535-540.

 

Cox LA Jr., Popken DA. Assessing potential human health hazards and benefits from subtherapeutic antibiotics in the United States: Tetracyclines as a case study.  Risk Analysis. 2010 March; 30(3):432-455.

 

Cox T. More general conditions under which mean-variance decision making is unjustified.  Risk Analysis. 2010 March; 30(3):329.

 

Cox LA Jr.  Why reduced-form regression models of health effects versus exposures should not replace QRA: livestock production and infant mortality as an example. Risk Analysis. 2009 Dec;29(12):1664-71.

 

Cox LA Jr. Game theory and risk analysis.  Risk Analysis. 2009 Aug;29(8):1062 -8.

 

Cox LA Jr. What's wrong with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note. Risk Analysis. 2009 Jul;29(7):940-8.

 

Cox LA Jr., Popken DA, Mathers J.  Human health risk assessment of penicillin / aminopenicillin resistance in enterococci due to penicillin use in food animals. Risk Analysis. 2009 Jun;29(6):796-805

 

Cox LA Jr. A mathematical model of protease-antiprotease homeostasis failure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Risk Analysis 2009 Apr;29(4):576-86.   

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19000077

 

Parnell GS, Borio LL, Cox LA, Brown GG, Pollock S, Wilson AG. Response to Ezell and von Winterfeldt.  Biosecurity and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science. March 2009, 7(1): 111-112

 

Cox LA Jr.  Improving risk-based decision making for terrorism applications. Risk Analysis 2009 March;29(3):336-341. 

 

Cox Jr LA. Hormesis without cell killing. Risk Analysis 2009 March 29(3):393-400.  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18793280

 

Cox Jr LA. Some limitations of frequency as a component of risk:  An expository note. Risk Analysis 2009 Feb; 29(2):171-175 www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18681867

 

Cox, LA Jr.  Making Telecommunications Networks Resilient Against Terrorist Attacks.  Chapter 8 in Bier VM and Azaiez MN (Eds).   Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats.  Springer, New York. 2009. http://www.springer.com/engineering/production+eng/book/978-0-387-87766-2

 

Cox LA Jr.  Could removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung cancer? Risk Analysis 2009 Jan; 29(1):3-17.

www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121502311/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0

 

Cox LA Jr.  Target Sites – Cardiovascular. In  P. Wexler et al. (Eds.)  Information Resources in Toxicology, Fourth Edition.  Elsevier Inc. New York.  2009 http://toxipedia.org/display/toxipedia/Information+Resources+in+Toxicology

 

Cox LA Jr.  Target Sites – Hematopoiesis.  In  P. Wexler et al. (Eds.)  Information Resources in Toxicology, Fourth Edition.  Elsevier Inc. New York.  2009 http://toxipedia.org/display/toxipedia/Information+Resources+in+Toxicology

 

Bier VM, Cox LA Jr, Azaiez MN.  Why Both Game Theory and Reliability Theory are Important in Defending Infrastructure Against Intelligent Attacks.   Chapter 1 in Bier VM and Azaiez MN (Eds).  Game Theoretic Risk Analysis of Security Threats.  Springer, New York.  2009. www.springer.com/engineering/production+eng/book/978-0-387-87766-2

 

Cox LA Jr., Brown GG, Pollock SM.  When is uncertainty about uncertainty worth characterizing?  Interfaces 2008 Nov.-Dec. 38(6):465-468.

http://interfaces.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/38/6/465

 

Cox LA Jr.  Some limitations of "Risk = Threat x Vulnerability x Consequence" for risk analysis of terrorist attacks. Risk Analysis 2008. Dec. 28(6):1749-1762.

 

Cox Jr LA, Popken DA. Overcoming confirmation bias in causal attribution: A case study of antibiotic resistance risks.  Risk Analysis 2008 Oct; 28(5):1155-1171.

 

Cox LA Jr.  R&D Planning and Risk Management. Wiley Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2008.

 

Cox LA Jr.  Managing Foodborne Risks. Wiley Encyclopedia of Quantitative Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2008.

 

Cox LA Jr, Greenberg MR, Bostrom A, Haas C, Haimes Y, Landis W, Lowrie KW, Moolgavkar S, North W.  What is the scope of the journal Risk Analysis?  (Invited Editorial).  Risk Analysis 2008 Oct; 28(5):1135-1136.

 

Cox Jr LA. Why risk is not variance: An expository note. Risk Analysis 2008 Aug 28(4):925-928.  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18554271

 

Cox LA Jr, Ricci PF. Causal regulations vs. political will: Why human zoonotic infections increase despite precautionary bans on animal antibiotics.  Environment International 2008 May;34(4):459-75

 

Cox LA Jr. What's wrong with risk matrices? Risk Analysis 2008 Apr;28(2):497-512.

 

Cox LA Jr, Huber WA. Symmetry, identifiability, and prediction uncertainties in multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models of carcinogenesis. Risk Analysis 2007 Dec;27(6):1441-53.

 

Cox LA Jr..  Regulatory false positives:  True, false, or uncertain?  [letter] Risk Analysis 2007 Oct;27(5):1083-6.

 

Cox LA Jr. Health Risk Analysis for Risk Management Decision-Making. Chapter 17 in Advances in Decision Analysis. W. Edwards, R. Miles, D. von Winterfeldt, Eds. Cambridge University Press.  2007.  http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=0521682304

 

Bier V, Cox LA Jr.  Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Engineered Systems.  Chapter 15 in  Advances in Decision Analysis. W. Edwards, R. Miles, D. von Winterfeldt, Eds.. Cambridge University Press.  2007.  http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=0521682304

 

Cox LA Jr, Popken DA.  Some limitations of aggregate exposure metrics.  Risk Analysis 2007 Apr;27(2):439-45.

 

Cox LA Jr. Does concern-driven risk management provide a viable alternative to QRA? Risk Analysis 2007 Feb;27(1):27-43. 

 

Cox LA Jr., Popken DA, Carnevale R.  Quantifying human health risks from animal antimicrobials.  Interfaces 2007 Jan-Feb; 37(1): 22-38. http://interfaces.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/37/1/22

 

Singer RS, Cox LA Jr, Dickson JS, Hurd HS, Phillips I, Miller GY. Modeling the relationship between food animal health and human foodborne illness.  Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2007 Jan 29.

 

Cox LA Jr. Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on smoker risk of lung cancer: A portfolio-of-mechanisms approach. Risk Analysis 2006 Dec;26(6):1581-99.

 

Cox LA Jr, Sanders E..  Estimating preventable fractions of disease caused by a specified biological mechanism: PAHs in smoking lung cancers as an example.  Risk Analysis  2006 August 6(4):881-892.  (Winner, "The Outstanding Published Paper in 2006 Demonstrating an Application of Risk Assessment", awarded by the Risk Assessment Specialty Section of the Society of Toxicology, March, 2007)

 

Cox LA Jr. and D Babayev.  Networked facilities expansion problem.  International Journal of Information Technology and Decision-Making 2006 June; 5(2):379-396. http://www.worldscinet.com/ijitdm/05/0502/S0219622006002003.html

 

Cox LA. Detecting causal nonlinear exposure-response relations in epidemiological data.  Dose Response. 2006 Aug 19;4(2):119-32.

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2477674

 

Cox LA. A model of cytotoxic dose-response nonlinearities arising from adaptive cell inventory management in tissues. Dose Response. 2006 May 22;3(4):491-507.

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2477194

 

Cox LA Jr, Wong C.  State transition model for customer relationship management.  Direct Marketing Analytics Journal.  May, 2006, 9-15.

 

Cox LA. Universality of J-Shaped and U-Shaped dose-response relations as emergent properties of stochastic transition systems.  Dose-Response 2006 May 1; 3(3): 353–368.

http://dose-response.metapress.com/app/home/contribution.asp?referrer=parent&backto=issue,6,11;journal,13,13;linkingpublicationresults,1:119866,1

 

Cox LA Jr.  Enrofloxacin in poultry and human health [letter].  Emerging Infectious Diseases.  2006 May;12(5): 872-3. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no05/05-1477_06-0305.htm

 

Cox LA Jr. Routine use of antibiotics in food animals increases protein production and reduces prices [letter]. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2006 Apr 1;42(7):1053.

 

Cox T.  Potential Human Health Impacts of Banning Antibiotics Used in Food Animals: A Case Study of Virginiamycin.  Chapter in D. Barug, J. de Jong, A.K. Kies and M.W.A. Verstegen (Eds).  Antimicrobial Growth Promoters Where Do We Go From Here? Wageningen Academic Publishers.  The Netherlands.  2006.  www.wageningenacademic.com/antimicrobial

 

Cox LA Jr, Popken DA. Quantifying potential human health impacts of animal antibiotic use: Enrofloxacin and macrolides in chickens. Risk Analysis. 2006 Feb;26(1):135-46.

 (Note:  The publisher has made this article available for free as one of the most-cited Risk Analysis articles of 2005-2007,

www.blackwell-synergy.com/action/showMostCitedArticles?journalCode=risk.)

 

Cox LA Jr. Animal antibiotic use and human health: No expert judgment is needed to determine that reducing cases reduces risk. Risk Analysis. 2006 Feb;26(1):157-61.

 

Ricci PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR. Science-policy in environmental and health risk assessment: If we cannot do without, can we do better? Hum Exp Toxicol. 2006 Jan;25(1):29-43.

 

Cox LA Jr. Some limitations of a proposed linear model for antimicrobial risk management.  Risk Analysis. 2005 Dec; 25(6): 1327-1332.

http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00703.x

 

Cox LA Jr, Phillips I..  Salmonella serotype typhimurium, not antimicrobial resistance per se, is associated with excess bloodstream infections and hospitalizations.  Letter to the Editor, Journal of Infectious Diseases.  2005 Dec 1; 192(1): 2029-2030.  www.journals.uchicago.edu/ cgi-bin/resolve?id=doi:10.1086/498044 

 

Cox LA, Babayev D. Optimization under uncertainty via random sampling of scenarios II.  Applied and Computational Mathematics, 2005;4(1): 20-28

 

Cox LA Jr., VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R.  Optimal tracking and testing of US and Canadian herds for BSE:  A Value-of-Information (VoI) approach.  Risk Analysis, 2005;  25(4): 827-840.  http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00648.x

 

Ricci PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR.  First do no harm:  Can regulatory science-policy in risk assessment be deleterious to health?  Biological Effects of Low Level Exposures (BELLE) Newsletter, 2005 July;13(10):26-37

 

Cox, LA Jr.  Precaution and consequences.  Letter to the Editor.  PLoS Medicine.  July, 2005.  http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=read-response&doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020232

 

Cox LA Jr.  Parkinsonism and welding: testing for statistical vs. causal associations.  Letter to the Editor.  Neurology.  June 29, 2005. http://www.neurology.org/cgi/eletters/64/2/230

 

Cox LA Jr, Babayev D, Huber W.  Some limitations of qualitative risk rating systems.  Risk Analysis, 2005 Jun;25(3):651-62

 http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00615.x

 

Cox LA Jr, Copeland D, Vaughn M. Antimicrobial resistance in Campylobacter.  Letter to the Editor. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2005 June; 11(6) http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no06/04-0689_05-0266.htm

 

Ricci PF, MacDonald TR, Cox LA Jr. Precautionary decision making: Analysis and results. Int. J. Risk Assessment and Management, 2005 6(2-4):237-270.

 

Cox LA Jr. Potential human health benefits of antibiotics used in food animals:  A case study of virginiamycin.  Environment International, 2005 May;31(4): 549-563.  doi:10.1016/j.envint.2004.10.012  

 

Cox LA Jr, Copeland D, Vaughn M..  Ciprofloxacin resistance does not affect duration of domestically acquired campylobacteriosis.  Letter to the Editor.   Journal of Infectious Diseases.  2005 May 1; 191(1): 1565-6. http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JID/journal/contents/v191n9.html

 

Cox LA Jr, Ricci PF..   Causation in risk assessment and management: Models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study. Environ Int. 2005 Apr;31(3):377-97.

 

Cox, LA Jr. Predicting and optimizing customer behaviors.  Chapter 12 in A. Labbi (Ed.), Handbook of Integrated Risk Management for E-Business:  Measuring, Modeling, and Managing Risk.  J. Ross Publishing.  February, 2005.  http://www.jrosspub.com/Engine/Shopping/catalog.asp?store=12&category=351&item=2813

 

Cox LA, VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R.  Reply to Comment on Tracking and testing of US and Canadian cattle herds for BSE: A risk management dilemma. CHOICES:  The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues.  1st Quarter, 2005.  http://www.choicesmagazine.org/2005-1/comment.htm

 

Cox LA, Babayev D. Optimization under uncertainty via random sampling of scenarios I.  Applied and Computational Mathematics, 2004 December;3(2):95-106.   

http://www.science.az/acm/2004_2/abstractpdf/babayev_95-106.pdf

 

Popken, DA and LA Cox.  A simulation-optimization approach to air warfare planning.  Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, 1(3), 127-140.  December, 2004. http://www.scs.org/pubs/jdms/vol1number3/Popken.pdf

 

Ricci PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR. Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk. Human Experimental Toxicology 2004 Dec;23(12):579-600.  Previously published in BELLE (Biological Effects of Low Level Exposures) Newsletter.  2004 Sep;12(2):13-33.  http://www.belleonline.com/BELLE_09_04F.pdf

 

Cox LA, VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R.  Tracking and testing of US and Canadian cattle herds for BSE: A risk management dilemma.  CHOICES:  The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues.  4th Quarter, 2004, 51-4.  http://www.choicesmagazine.org/2004-4/grabbag/2004-4-12.htm

 

Cox LA Jr. Domestically acquired fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter infection.  Letter to the Editor.  Clin Infect Dis. 2004 Nov 1;39(9):1399-1400. http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v39n9/34073/34073.html,

www.cdc.gov/narms/publications/2004/CoxKass__2004.pdf

 

Cox LA Jr, Popken DA..  Bayesian Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of human health risks from animal antimicrobial use in a dynamic model of emerging resistance.  Risk Analysis, 24, 5, October 2004. 1153-1164.  (Winner, Society for Risk Analysis, 2003 Best Paper Award.  http://www.sra.org/newsletter/news0204.pdf)

 

Cox LA Jr.  Campylobacter risk data out of date? Letter to the Editor.  Comprehensive Reviews in Food Science and Food Safety. 3, October, 2004. http://www.ift.org/pdfs/crfsfs/crfsfsv3n4p0125-0126.pdf, http://members.ift.org/NR/rdonlyres/A116915E-BDC5-4E31-9B40-2771D8545C2B/0/crfsfsv3n4p01250126.pdf

 

Phillips I, Casewell M, Cox T, De Groot B, Friis C, Jones R, Nightingale C, Preston R, Waddell J. Does the use of antibiotics in food animals pose a risk to human health? A reply to critics.  J Antimicrob Chemother. 2004 May 12.  http://jac.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/54/1/276

 

Cox LA Jr, Popken DA. Quantifying human health risks from virginiamycin used in chickens.  Risk Analysis 24, 1.  February, 2004.  271-88. (Finalist, Society for Risk Analysis, 2002 Best Paper Award.)

 

Phillips I, Casewell M, Cox T, De Groot B, Friis C, Jones R, Nightingale C, Preston R, Waddell J. Does the use of antibiotics in food animals pose a risk to human health? A critical review of published data.  J Antimicrob Chemother. 2004 Jan;53(1):28-52.

http://jac.oupjournals.org/cgi/content/full/53/1/28#DKG483TB2

 

Bafundo KW, Cox LA, Jr., Bywater R, 2003.  Causal animal antibiotic-foodborne illness relationship explored.    Feedstuffs.  June 30, 2003.  p. 8 (Invited Letter to the Editor).

 

Cox LA Jr. Mortality associated with foodborne bacterial gastrointestinal infections: Statistical method is worth examining.  BMJ. 2003 Jun 7;326(7401):1265.  Rapid Response Letter.  http://bmj.com/cgi/eletters/326/7385/357#29767 

 

Bafundo KW, Cox LA, Jr., Bywater R, 2003.  The use of virginiamycin in food animal production.  Feedstuffs.  Jan. 20, 2003.  26-27. (Letter to the Editor)

 

Lipscomb JC, Teuschler LK, Swartout J, Popken D, Cox T, Kedderis GL..  The impact of Cytochrome P450 2E1-dependent metabolic variance on a risk-relevant pharmacokinetic outcome in humans.  Risk Analysis 2003 Dec;23(6):1221-38.

 

Ricci PF, Rice D, Ziagos J, Cox LA.  Precaution, uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions.  Environ Int. 2003 Apr;29(1):1-19.

 

Cox L.A., 2002.  Reexamining the causes of campylobacteriosis.  International Journal of Infectious Diseases.  Dec. 6. Supplement 3:S26-S36

 

Cox LA, Popken, DA, 2002.  Quantifying human health impacts of animal antibiotics: Risk management alternatives for enrofloxacin.  Winner, Society for Risk Analysis Best Paper Award, December, 2002.  www.sra.org/news0203.pdf

 

Cox, LA, Popken DA, 2002.  A simulation model of human health risks from chicken-borne Campylobacter jejuni.  Technology, 9:55-84.

https://www.cognizantcommunication.com/cccSiteFiles/Technology/tech91abs.html

 

Cox, L.A. Jr., 2002. Data mining and causal modeling of customer behaviors. Telecommunications Systems. 21(2-4):349-381.

http://www.mgmt.purdue.edu/faculty/kemal/telecomm/boca2000contents.pdf

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and Popken, D.A., 2002.  A hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product demands.  International Journal of Forecasting Volume 18, Issue 4, October-December 2002, Pages 647-671

 

Ricci, PF and Cox, LA 2002.  Empirical causation and biases in epidemiology:  Issues and solutions.  Technology, 9:23-53.

http://www.cognizantcommunication.com/filecabinet/Technology/tech91abs.html#tech91abs3

 

Byrd DM, Cox, JA, Jr., Wilson, JM, 2001.  Tracking antibiotics up the food chain.  Letter to the Editor, Science, 291, 30 March, 2001, p. 2550. http://www.pmac.net/AM/tracking.html

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., J.R. Sanchez, and Lu, L., 2001. Cost savings from optimized packing and grooming of optical circuits:  Mesh vs. ring comparisons.  Optical Networks Magazine, May-June, 72-90.

 

Cox, L.A. Jr., 2001. Forecasting demand for telecommunications products from cross-sectional data. Telecommunications Systems, 16:3, 439-456.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 2000.  A biomathematical model of cyclophosphamide hematotoxicity.  Journal of Toxicology and Environmental Health, Part A, 61:5-6, 501-510 (pp. 501-552 with dicussions).  November, 2000.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=11086959&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Chiu, W.A., Hassenzahl, D.M., Kammen, D.M., 2000.  Low dose responses:  Response to Wilson.  Risk Analysis, 20, 3, June, 2000.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and J.R. Sanchez, 2000. Designing least-cost survivable wireless backhaul networks. Journal of Heuristics, 6, 525-540.

 

Chiu, S.Y., L.A. Cox, Jr., X. Sun, 1999.  Optimal sequential inspections of reliability systems subject to parallel-chain precedence constraints.  Discrete Applied Mathematics Vol. 96-97 (1-3), pp. 327-336.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1999.  A biomathematical model of hematotoxicity.  Environment International, 25, 6/7, September, 805-817.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1999.  Internal dose, uncertainty analysis, and complexity of risk models.  Environment International, 25, 6/7, September, 841-852.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1999.  Adaptive spatial sampling of contaminated soil.  Risk Analysis, 19, 6, 1059-1069.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=10765446&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., K. Paige, D. Popken, 1999.  Software review of Analytica 1.2. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 5, 2, 305-316.

 

Lu, L., SY Chiu, and LA Cox, Jr. 1999.  Optimal project selection: Stochastic knapsack with finite time horizon.  Journal of the Operational Research Society.  50, 645-650.

 

Ricci PF, Cox LA, Jr. Empirical and theoretical analysis of the variability of maximum likelihood estimates of benzene cancer risks. Environment International, 25: 745 - 754 1999.

 

Fraughnaugh, K., J. Ryan, H. Zullo, L.A. Cox, Jr., 1998.  Heuristics for efficient classification.  Annals of Operations Research, 78, 189-200.

 

Davis, L., L.A. Cox, Jr., W.E. Kuehner, L. Lu, D. Orvosh, 1997.  Dynamic hierarchical packing of wireless switches using a seed, repair, and replace genetic algorithm.  Journal of Heuristics, 3, 3, 187-206.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1997.  Does diesel exhaust cause human lung cancer?  Risk Analysis, 17, 6, 807-829.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1996.  Reassessing benzene risks using internal doses and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis.  Environmental Health Perspectives, 104, Supplement 6, 1413-1429.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1996.  Using causal knowledge to learn more useful decision rules from data.   Chapter 2 in D. Fisher and H.-J. Lenz (eds), Learning from Data:  AI and Statistics V.  Springer-Verlag, 1996. http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/65301.html

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1996.  More accurate estimates of dose-response functions using Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis:  The Data Cube approach.  Human and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2, 1, 146-170.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and G. Bell, 1996.  A machine-learning approach to process improvement in a telecommunications company.   Annals of Operations Research, 65, 21-34.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., M.G. Bird, and L. Griffis, 1996.  Isoprene cancer risk and the time pattern of dose adminstration.  Toxicology, 113, 263-272.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=8901907&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., L. Davis, L. Lu, D. Orvosh, X. Sun, D. Sirovica, 1996.  Reducing costs of backhaul networks for PCS companies using genetic algorithms.  Journal of Heuristics, 2, 1-16.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., S. Chiu, and X. Sun, 1996.  Least-cost failure diagnosis in uncertain reliability systems.  Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 54, 2-3, 203-316.

 

Chiu, S., L. Lu, and L.A. Cox, Jr., 1996.  Optimal access control for broadband services:  Stochastic knapsack with advance information. European Journal of Operational Research,  89, 127-134.

 

Placke, M.E., L. Griffis, M. Bird, J. Bus, R.L. Persing, L.A. Cox, Jr., 1996. Chronic inhalation oncogenicity study of isoprene in B6C3F1 mice.  Toxicology, 110, 253-262.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=8901906&dopt=Abstract

 

Schnatter, A.R., M.G. Bird, L.A. Cox, Jr., and R.F. Herrick, 1996.  Defining optimal exposure assessment methods and metrics for epidemiologic studies exposures of petroleum distribution workers to benzene.  Occupational Hygiene, 155-160.

 

Sun, X., Qiu, Y., and Cox, L.A., Jr., 1996.  A hill-climbing approach to construct near-optimal decision trees. in D. Fisher and H.-J. Lenz (eds), Learning from Data:  AI and Statistics V.  Springer-Verlag. http://citeseer.ist.psu.edu/154420.html

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1995.  Simple relations between administered and internal doses in compartmental flow models, Risk Analysis, 15, 2, 197-204.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=7604169&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., 1995.  An exact analysis of the multistage model explaining dose-response concavity, Risk Analysis, 15, 3, 359-368.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=7604169&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b

 

Grover, R.W., and L.A. Cox, Jr., 1995.  Dynamic site portfolio remediation optimization model, Hazardous Waste Strategies Update, 6, 4,  31 - 39.

 

Cox LA, Bell G, Glover F.  A new learning approach to process improvement in a telecommunications company. Production and Operations Management, 4, 3, 217-227, 1995. (POMS National Award Finalist.)

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and Y. Qiu.  Optimal inspection and repair of renewable coherent systems with independent components and constant failure rates, Naval Research Logistics, 41, 771-788, 1994.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and Y. Qiu, Minimizing the expected costs of classifying patterns by sequential costly inspections, in P. Cheeseman and R.W. Olford (eds), Selecting Models from Data.  Springer-Verlag, Lecture Notes in Statistics, Volume 89, pp. 339-350.  New York, 1994.

 

Cox LA Jr, Ricci PF. Dose-response nonlinearities for benzene revisited: a reply to Crump et al. Risk Analysis 1993 Oct;13(5):485-6.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Knowledge acquisition for model building,  International Journal of Intelligent Systems, 8, 1, 91-104, 1993.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Combining the probability judgements of experts:  Statistical and artificial intelligence approaches, Chapter 26 in D.J. Hand (ed), Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics.  Chapman and Hall, 1993.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., W. Kuehner, S.H. Parrish, and Y. Qiu, 1993.  Optimal expansion of fiber-optic telecommunications networks in metropolitan areas, Interfaces, 23, 2, 35-48, March-April, 1993.

 

Davis, L.D., Y. Qiu, L.A. Cox, Jr., and D. Orvosh, A genetic algorithm for survivable network design, Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Genetic Algorithms.  Morgan Kaufmann, 1993.

 

Qiu, Y., and L.A. Cox, Jr., Heuristic testing procedures for general coherent systems, European Journal of Operational Research, 69, 65-74, 1993.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Extending the stochastic two-stage model of carcinogenesis to include self-regulation of the non-malignant cell population,  Risk Analysis, 12,  1, 129-138, 1992.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=1410709&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F. Ricci, Reassessing benzene cancer risks using internal doses, Risk Analysis, 12, 3, 401-410, 1992.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=1410709&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F. Ricci, Dealing with uncertainty:  From health risk assessment to environmental decision making, Journal of Energy Engineering, 118, 2, 77-94, 1992. http://www.pubs.asce.org/WWWdisplay.cgi?9203780

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Y. Qiu, and L. Davis, Guess-and-verify heuristics for reducing uncertainties in expert classification systems, in D. Dubois et al (eds), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence.  Morgan Kaufmann, San Mateo, CA, 1992.

 

Parrish, S.H., L.A. Cox, Jr., Y. Qiu, and W. Kuehner, 1992.  Planning for optimal expansion of leased line communication networks,  Annals of Operations Research, 36, 347-364.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Biological basis of carcinogenesis:  Insights from benzene, Risk Analysis,  11, 3, 453-464, 1991.

 

Cox, L.A., L. Davis, and Y. Qiu, 1991.  Dynamic anticipatory routing in circuit-switched telecommunications networks, pages 124-143 in L. Davis (ed), Handbook of Genetic Algorithms.  McGraw-Hill, New York

 

Cox, L.A., Jr.,  Knowledge-based resolution of conflicting expert opinions, J. Applied Statistics, 18, 1, 23-34, 1991.

 

Hermansky, H., and Cox, L.A., Jr., Perceptual linear predictive (PLP) analysis-resynthesis technique, Eurospeech 91, 2nd European Conference on Speech Communication and Technology.  Genoa, Italy, September, 1991.

http://www.isca-speech.org/archive/eurospeech_1991/e91_0329.html

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Uncertain temporal logics for risk analysis, pp 1-13 in B.J. Garrick and W.C. Gekler (eds), The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk.  (Volume 8 in Advances in Risk Assessment  series.)  Plenum Press, New York, 1991.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Extending biologically-based cancer risk modeling to apply to benzene-induced leukemogenesis,  in B.J. Garrick and W.C. Gekler (eds), The Analysis, Communication, and Perception of Risk. Plenum Press, New York, 1991.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Assessing cancer risks: From statistical to biological models,  J. Energy Engineering, 116, 3, 189-210, 1990

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Incorporating statistical information into expert classification systems to reduce classification costs,  Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence,  2, 93-108, 1990.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Pragmatic information-seeking strategies in expert classification systems, in D. Brown and C. White (eds), Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence:  The Integration of Problem-Solving Strategies.  Kluwer, New York, 1990.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F. Ricci, Health risk assessment:  Production of electricity,  J. Energy Engineering, 116, 3, 130-147, 1990.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., A probabilistic risk assessment program for analyzing security risks, pp 331-340 in L.A. Cox, Jr., and P.F. Ricci (eds), New Risks:  Issues and Management.  Plenum Press, New York, 1990.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Managing uncertain risks through 'intelligent' classification:  A combined artificial intelligence/decision analysis approach, pp 473-482 in J.J. Bonin and D.E. Stevenson (eds), Risk Assessment in Setting National Priorities.   Plenum Press, New York, 1989.

 

Cox, L.A., and P.F. Ricci, Legal and philosophical aspects of risk analysis,  Chapter 30 in D.J. Paustenbach (ed), The Risk Assessment of Environmental and Human Health Hazards:  A Textbook of Case Studies.  Wiley, New York, 1017-1046, 1989

 

Cox, L.A., and P.F. Ricci, Risk, uncertainty, and causation:  Quantifying human health risks.  Chapter 2 in D.J. Paustenbach (ed), The Risk Assessment of Environmental and Human Health Hazards:  A Textbook of Case Studies.  Wiley, New York, 1989, 125-157.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Y. Qiu, and W. Kuehner, Heuristic least-cost computation of discrete  classification functions with uncertain argument values,  Annals of Operations Research,  21, 1-30, 1989.

 

Ricci, P.F.,  L.A. Cox, Jr., and J.P. Dwyer, Acceptable cancer risks:  Probabilities and beyond,  J. Air Pollution Control Association (JAPCA), 39, 8, 1046-1053, 1989.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=2677256&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Comparative risk measures for heterogeneous populations, in A. Woodhead, M.A. Bender, and R.C. Leonard (eds), Phenotypic Variations in Populations:  Relevance to Risk Assessment.  Plenum Press, New York, 1988.  Also in Basic Life Sci 1988;43:233-43.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3365220&dopt=Abstract

      

Cox, L.A., Jr., Statistical issues in the estimation of assigned shares for carcinogenesis liability,  Risk Analysis, 7, 1, 71-80, 1987.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3615994&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Economic theory of compensation rule design for probabilistic injuries.  In Lester B. Lave (Ed.), Risk Assessment and Management.  Plenum Press, 1987. 407-420.

 

Ricci, P.F., and L.A. Cox, Jr., Acceptability of chronic health risks,  Toxics Law Reporter, 1, 35, 986-1001, 1987.

 

Ricci, P.F., L.A. Cox, Jr., and M. Baram, De minimis  considerations in health risk assessment, J. Hazardous Materials, 15, 1987.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Technical and policy issues in assigned share calculations:  A comment on Lagakos and Mosteller,  Risk Analysis, 6, 3, 373-376, 1986

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3602509&dopt=Abstract

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Theory of regulatory benefits assessment:  Econometric and expressed preference approaches,  Chapter 5, pages 85-159 in J.D. Bentkover et al. (eds), Benefits Assessment:  The State of the Art.  Reidel, Boston, 1986.

 

Cummings, R.G., L.A. Cox, Jr., and A. Myrick Freeman, III, General methods for benefits assessment, Chapter 6 in  J.D. Bentkover et al (eds), Benefits Assessment:  The State of the Art.  Reidel, Boston, 1986.

 

Fischoff, B., and L.A. Cox, Jr., Conceptual framework for regulatory benefits assessment,  Chapter 4 in J.D. Bentkover et al. (eds), Benefits Assessment:  The State of the Art.  Reidel, Boston, 1986.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., A new measure of attributable risk for public health applications,  Management Science,  31, 7, 800-814, 1985

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and I. Plotkin, The economic foundations of limited liability for nuclear reactor accidents, in The Price-Anderson Law:  Six Reports on Price-Anderson Issues.  American Nuclear Insurers and Liability Underwriters, Hartford, Connecticut, 1985.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and J. Fiksel, A critical review of the probability of causation method, in The Price-Anderson Law:  Six Reports on Price-Anderson Issues.  American Nuclear Insurers and Liability Underwriters, Hartford, Connecticut, 1985.

 

Fiksel, J., and L.A. Cox, Jr., The process analysis approach, in P.F. Ricci and M.D. Rowe (eds), Assessing Health Impacts of Energy Technologies at the National and Regional Levels.  Pergamon Press, New York, 1984.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Probability of causation and the attributable proportion of risk.  Risk Analysis, 4, 221-230, September, 1984.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., and J. Fiksel.  Quantifying the causes of cancer.  Letter to the Editor, Risk Management, July, 1984.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., J. Fiksel, A.S. Kalelkar, and P.F. Ricci.  Occupational risks of energy production.  Nuclear Safety, 24, 4, 459-470, 1983.

 

Fiksel, J., L.A. Cox, Jr., D.L. Richardson, and A. Adamantiades, Selection of nuclear safety R&D projects through value-impact analysis,  Nuclear Safety,  24, 1, 1983.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Artifactual uncertainty in risk analysis,  Risk Analysis, 2, 3, 121-135. 1982.

 

Murray, C.A., and L.A. Cox, Jr., The suppression effect and the institutionalization of children, pp 653-666 in L. Sechrest (ed), Evaluation Studies Review Annual, Volume 4.  Sage Publications, Beverly Hills, CA, 1979.

 

 

PUBLISHED CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS

 

Popken, DA and LA Cox.  Model identification and optimization for operational simulation. In Enabling Technologies for Simulation Science VII, Alex F Sisti and Dawn A Trevisani, Editors, Proceedings of SPIE Vol. 5091, 294-303. 2003.

 

Cox, LA and Bafundo KW.  Health risks from virginiamycin use in chickens.  Poultry Digest Online.  3, 6.  2002.  http://www.wattnet.com/Library/DownLoad/PD6virgin.pdf

 

Cox, L. A., M. Laguna, B. Melián, J. A. Moreno-Pérez, and J. Sanchez (2001).  Optimizing placement and sizing of wave division multiplexing and optical cross-connect equipment.   Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on  Telecommunication Systems, Modeling and Analysis, pp. 98-107.  2001

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., L. Lu, J. Sanchez, X. Sun, “Cost savings from network optimization of DWDM facilities and optical switches”. In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Telecommunications Systems:  Modeling and Analysis.  Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, March 9-12, 2000.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., “Predicting and optimizing customer behaviors.” In Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Telecommunications Systems: Modeling and Analysis.  Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, March 9-12, 2000.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., "Causal mechanisms and classification trees for predicting chemical carcinogens." In David Heckerman and Joe Whittaker (editors). Proceedings of the Seventh International Workshop on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, Inc., San Francisco, CA, 1999. http://uncertainty99.microsoft.com/proceedings.htm

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., Dose-response relationships and benzene toxicology in Proceedings of The Toxicology Forum, 22nd Annual Winter Meeting.  Toxicology Forum,  Inc., 1997.

 

Cox, L.A., Jr., "PM 2.5 and diesel exhaust health risks:  Statistical vs. causal associations".  Proceedings of the U. California, Riverside and The California Trucking Association Conference on Meeting the Environmental Challenge of the 21st Century.  World Truck Conference, Treasure Island Resort Hotel, Las Vegas, Nevada.  May 13-15, 1997.