LOUIS ANTHONY (TONY) COX, JR., PH.D
Cox Associates,
Tony
Cox is President of Cox Associates (www.cox-associates.com),
a Denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health
risk assessment, causal modeling, probabilistic and statistical risk analysis,
data mining, and operations research.
Since 1986, Cox Associates’ mathematicians and scientists have developed
and applied computer simulation and biomathematical models, statistical and
epidemiological risk analyses, causal data mining techniques, and operations
research and artificial intelligence risk and decision models to measurably
improve health, business, and engineering risk analysis and decision-making for
public and private sector clients. Since
1996, its sister company, NetAdvantage, has provided operations research
services and software for telecommunications companies. In 2006, Cox Associates was inducted into the
Dr. Cox holds a Ph.D. in Risk Analysis (1986) and an S.M. in Operations Research (1985), both from M.I.T.’s Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. He has an AB from
Dr.
Cox is Area Editor for Mathematical Modeling for Risk Analysis: An International Journal, and is a co-founder and
Area Editor of the Journal of
Heuristics. He is an Edelman
Laureate of INFORMS, a member of the American Statistical Association (ASA),
and a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA). He won the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA)
Best Paper Awards in both 2002 and 2003 for work applying uncertainty analysis
to evaluate public health risks and benefits of animal antibiotics. In 2007, he
won the Society of Toxicology’s Outstanding Published
Paper in Risk Assessment Award and the Society for Risk Analysis Outstanding
Risk Practitioner Award. In 2008, his
solution to a challenge on “Statistical Methods to Predict Clinical Response”
won an InnoCentive Award.
LOUIS ANTHONY COX,
JR., PH.D
Cox Associates,
(303)-388-1778
(Phone); (303)-388-0609 (Fax); tony@cox-associates.com
WORK HISTORY
1986 - Present President, Cox Associates. Cox Associates is an independent
based consulting company
specializing in health, safety, and probabilistic risk analysis, applied
statistical decision analysis, and operations research modeling for public- and
private-sector clients. Cox Associates
develops and applies quantitative risk assessment, uncertainty analysis, and
decision optimization models and artificial intelligence and computational
statistical models to measurably improve client decision-making. Since 1986, Cox Associates has created health
risk models for many chemicals, chemical carcinogens, food-borne pathogens, and
animal antimicrobials. Since 1996, its sister company NetAdvantage has also
provided quantitative risk modeling, customer data mining, and network planning
software solutions to telecommunications companies.
1987 - 1996 Senior Director for U S West
Advanced Technologies in
1980 - 1986 Manager, Applied Decision
Sciences practice area; Senior Consultant
in Operations
Research, Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
1978 - 1979 Senior Research Associate,
American Institutes for Research in the
Social and
Behavioral Sciences (AIR),
Academic Affiliations
Past Academic Affiliations
EDUCATION
1986 - Present Professional courses and seminars in
optimization, biomathematics,
molecular and cell biology and
toxicology, epidemiology, operations research, computational statistics,
digital signal processing, image processing, artificial intelligence, and risk
analysis.
1993 Stanford Executive
Program,
1985 - 1986 M.I.T., Ph.D. in Risk
Analysis. Dissertation: Mathematical
Foundations
of Risk Measurement
1983 - 1985 M.I.T., S.M. in Operations
Research, Department of Electrical
Engineering
and Computer Science
1979 - 1983 Harvard University, graduate
courses in applied mathematics,
theoretical
and applied statistics, psychometrics, and decision sciences
1975-1978 Harvard University, A.B.
(Mathematical Economics)
ACADEMIC EXPERIENCE
Graduate
Courses Taught
·
Health Risk Analysis,
· Causality, Inference, and Decision-Making,
· Decision and Risk Analysis,
· Statistics for Business,
· Social Decision and Risk Management,
Professional
Courses Taught
·
Advances in Health Risk Assessment and Modeling. Invited lectures presented at Risk Assessment Unit at
Evira (Finnish Food Safety Authority)
·
Short
Course on Causality and Decision Analysis
for Risk Analysts.
·
Probabilistic risk
analysis: Assessment, management, and
communication.
·
Gordon-Kenan
Risk Analysis Summer School in Risk Analysis August 3-15, 2003
Roger Williams University
·
Probabilistic risk
analysis. Professional course for
Health
·
Advanced Methods for
Dose-Response Assessment: Bayesian Approaches.
Resources for the
http://www.rff.org/disc_papers/PDF_files/0115.pdf.
· "Bayesian methods
for assessing uncertain exposures", Workshop
on Probabilistic Methods for Risk Assessment. Society for Risk Analysis,
· Advances in Wireless
Technology,
· Introduction to Decision
Analysis for Risk Management, United States Department of Agriculture's APHIS
Introductory Risk Analysis course, University of Maryland Conference Center,
July 9, 1992.
· Risk Assessment Modeling, one-day short course
given at the USDA Training Center, APHIS Risk Assessment Course, Fort Collins,
CO, July 23-24, 1992.
· Technical Risk
Communication,
short-course given at the Greenbelt Marriott Hotel, APHIS Advanced Risk
Communication Course, Greenbelt, MD, August 20, 1992.
· Biologically-Based Risk
Assessment. Short course, Society for Risk Analysis,
1991.
Science
Enrichment Courses for Elementary School Children
At the
· Natural and Artificial Life, Evolution, and Intelligence (Spring, 2010)
· Science Basics:
Introduction to Cosmology and Earth Science (Spring, 2010)
· Matter, Energy, and Technology (Spring, 2009)
· Introduction to Materials Science (Spring, 2009)
· Basic Cell Biology (Fall, 2008)
Dissertations
Supervised
Dr. Cox has served on
S.M. and Ph.D. thesis committees at the University of Denver (S.M. thesis on
genetic algorithms) and the University of Colorado (S.M. thesis on innovations
in voice messaging, 1995; Ph.D. thesis
on classification trees for learning forecasting models from data, 1999; MS
thesis on ant colony optimization for bandwidth packing, 2000; MS project on
data mining and causal simulation modeling, 2000; Ph.D. thesis on uncertainty analysis in
epidemiology, 2003.)
At U S WEST Advanced Technologies, Dr.
Cox initiated and led collaborative research projects with top researchers at
many universities, including
·
·
·
· Oregon Graduate
Institute (breakthroughs in neural net and digital signal processing
technologies for automated speech recognition with Professor Ron Cole).
In 1992, his collaboration with
mathematicians at the University of Colorado at Denver on combinatorial
optimization heuristics for network routing was selected by the Colorado
Advanced Software Institute (CASI) as one of only two projects (out of 30) that
exemplified this state-funded Institute's major goals: outstanding
industry-university technical research with high commercial value. In 1993 and 1994, his collaborations with UCD
on new data mining algorithms and pattern recognition techniques for risk
analysis and fault diagnosis algorithms were the only projects to receive CASI's
award. Dr. Cox has also collaborated
with colleagues at Bell Labs and the
Dr. Cox has
chaired conference sessions on:
·
Security and Resilience in Telecommunications Networks. Institute for Operations Research and Management Science annual
conference,
·
Animal
Pathogens and Human Exposure. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference,
·
Alternative
Approaches to Risk Assessment. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference,
·
Complexity in
Modeling Mode-of-Action and Other Sources of Non-Linearity In Risk. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference,
·
Statistical
Methods: Uncertainty, Confidence Limits,
etc. Society for Risk Analysis annual conference,
In the past he has chaired conference
sessions on:
·
Toxicology. Session at Non-Linear Dose-Response
Relationships in Biology, Toxicology, and Medicine: An International Conference. (
· Special
Applications in Industry and Government.
(Society for Risk Analysis, 2002)
· Market Modeling
and Policy (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 2002)
· Wireless
Network Planning (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 2002)
· Optical
Networks (8th
International Conference on Telecommunications Systems, 2000.)
· Telecommunications
(INFORMS, 2000)
· Marketing
(INFORMS, 1999)
· Forecasting and
Economics (INFORMS Telecommunications Conference, 1998)
· Stochastic
Optimization (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, SIAM, 1996)
· Planning
Heuristics for Telecommunications Networks (INFORMS, 1996).
· Risk and
Uncertainty
· Artificial
Intelligence Heuristics for Optimization
· Heuristic
Optimization for Process Improvement.
· Cluster chair
for INFORMS sessions on "Heuristic Optimization and Learning" (1994).
He has also chaired sessions on:
· Dose-Response
Relationships
· Uncertainty
Analysis and related topics at Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) annual
conferences.
Other Academic
Experience
From 1987-1992,
Dr. Cox served on the Industry Advisory Board of the Mathematics Department at
the University of Colorado at Denver, where he is now Honorary Full Professor
of Mathematics and on the Faculty of the Center for Computational
Mathematics. He has given invited talks
on advanced topics in risk analysis, telecommunications engineering and
management, and computer science to faculties and graduate seminars at many top
universities. He is on the Editorial
Board of Risk Analysis: An International Journal and is Area
Editor of the Journal of Heuristics, which he helped to found in 1995. He has reviewed many academic research
proposals for the National Science Foundation's
Decision, Risk, and Management Science program and SBIR technology
proposals for NSF and other agencies. He
lectures frequently on biomathematics and cancer risk modeling at the
Examples of applied
statistics, epidemiology, operations research, and health risk analysis
projects completed by Dr. Cox in the past decade include the following:
RISK ANALYSIS
AND APPLIED STATISTICS CONSULTING EXPERIENCE
·
For
the U.S. EPA, served as a member of the Science Advisory Board (SAB) for Dioxin
(2010)
·
For the
National Pork Board, assessed human health risks of resistant “superbug”
bacterial infections originating from pigs (2010)
·
For Philip Morris International, developed a quantitative
model of age-specific risks of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as
a function of smoking history (2008-2009).
Clarified the interaction of molecular biological pathways in forming
positive feedback loops that trigger and sustain this disease.
·
For the
National Pork Board, reviewed statistical and causal analyses of infant
mortality and livestock production (2009)
·
For the
·
For Alpharma
and Phibro Animal Health, assessed potential human health risks from use of
tetracycline drugs in food animals (2009)
·
Member of
National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee on Methodological Improvements to
the Department of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis. (2006-8) http://www8.nationalacademies.org/cp/CommitteeView.aspx?key=48682
·
Member of
Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board (EPA SAB) on Asbestos.
http://yosemite.epa.gov/sab/sabpeople.nsf/WebCommitteesSubcommittees/Asbestos%20Committee
·
Member
of
·
For Comcast
Cable, worked
in partnership with
·
Delegate to
First Session of the Codex Ad Hoc
Intergovernmental Task Force on Antimicrobial Resistance held in
·
For Xcel
Energy, worked
in partnership with North Highland consulting company to develop a credit risk
assessment model that predicts which customer accounts are likely to become bad
debts six months or more in advance, when early intervention is still possible
and profitable (2007)
·
For
Qwest Communications, worked in partnership with
·
For
Philip Morris International, developed a quantitative model of age-specific
risks of lung cancer as a function of smoking history. Estimated the potential reduction in lung
cancer risk for smokers if cadmium were removed from tobacco products.
(2005-2007)
·
For
Qwest Communications, worked in partnership with
·
For
a sand and gravel company, examined the usefulness, for estimating risks and
setting prioriries, of aggregate exposure metrics for mixtures of asbestos and
non-asbestos fibers and particles (2006)
·
For
a telecommunications equipment manufacturer, created a model to predict the
numbers and types of equipment failures expected in future years, based on
historical failure data for equipment items manufactured in different years.
(2006)
·
For
a grass seed company, assessed the quantitative risks of gene flow from genetically
modified grasses into the environment via pollen and seeds (2006). This approach was subsequently adopted by the
United States District Court for the
·
For
a homeowner’s association, quantified the probable number and timing of future
failures in copper pipes due to thermogalvanic corrosion. The model correctly predicted the near
statistical certainty of additional pipe failures (2006).
·
For
the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS),
advised on modeling potential failures and threats to spent nuclear fuel rods
stored in different types of containers.
This work contributed to the 2006 NAS report Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel
Storage, http://www.nap.edu/openbook/0309096472/html/R4.html.
·
For
a large pharmaceutical company, analyzed Phase 3 clinical trial data and showed
that a major drug is highly effective in reversing symptoms of a disease in
patients in both the short run (within 1-2 weeks) and over a longer time
frame. This statistical analysis of the
time course of responses and the clusters of different response histories among
patients explained several previously unresolved puzzles and made the meaning
of the data clear for company statisticians and decision-makers. (2005)
·
For
a law firm specializing in construction defect litigation, developed an
approach to sampling available homes or units to support efficient statistical
inference from available data, even when some homes or units cannot be
inspected. (2005)
·
For
Phibro Animal Health, developed a systems dynamics model of the evolution of
illnesses and resistance in human and animal populations. (2005/2006)
·
For
the American Chemistry Council, assessed the potential human health risks
associated with methyl bromide (2005).
·
For
Philip Morris Intenational, developed new ways to integrate partial knowledge
of causal mechanisms of lung carcinogenesis with statistical information
(mainly epidemiological and molecular epidemiological data) to obtain
quantitative bounds on the fraction of lung cancers that can be prevented by
removing specific components of exposure and/or blocking specific causal
pathways. (2004-2006)
·
For
the cattle industry group R-CALF, developed a value of information (VOI) model
for assessing the economic value of tracking Canadian cattle in the
·
For
the Animal Health Institute, developed a Rapid Risk Rating Technique (RRRT) to
quantify the human health impacts of food-borne pathogens and animal
antimicrobial uses (1Q-04)
·
For
Elanco Animal Health, served on an Expert Panel to develop a mathematical model
of the human health benefits of decreasing microbial loads in food animals
(2003-4)
·
For
Phibro Animal Health, developed a quantitative risk assessment of the human
health risks and benefits from continued use of virginiamycin in chickens and
pigs (2002-4)
·
For
the Animal Health Institute, served on an Expert Panel to review human health
risks from animal antibiotics (2002-3); developed a farm-to-fork risk
simulation model for Campylobacter risks (2000-2002)
·
For
the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, served as an external expert reviewer
for the EPA’s “Perchlorate Environmental Contamination: Toxicological Review and Risk
Characterization” Draft External Review Document (March, 2002).
·
For
the World Health Organization (WHO), served as an external expert reviewer for
a Consultation on Campylobacter risk
assessment, in
·
For
the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), (a) Reviewed proposed approaches to
antimicrobial risk assessment (1999) http://www.fda.gov/cvm/antimicrobial/tonycox/index.htm; and (b) Proposed a decision-analytic
alternative to FDA’s threshold approach for managing risks of resistant strains
of pathogenic bacteria due to use of antibiotics in animals (2001). The FDA at
first strongly rejected Dr. Cox’s advice and testimony on how to do antimicrobial
risk assessment correctly (with considerable acrimony, in the context of
enrofloxacin litigation), but has subsequently had Dr. Cox visit to discuss
several antimicrobial risk assessments, and has sought Dr. Cox’s views on how to
do better risk analysis.
·
For
the U.S. EPA, served as expert external reviewer and contributor to Review of Uncertainty and Variability
Analysis In IRIS for Eight Substances.
http://www.epa.gov/ncea/hlthfx_iris.htm
·
Created
computer simulation models (PBPK and PD) of dose-time-response relations for
low-level exposures to chemical carcinogens, for Exxon Biomedical Sciences
(EBSI). Developed an artificial
intelligence method for improving prediction of likely human chemical
carcinogens, also for EBSI.
·
Created
a discrete-event stochastic simulation model of the human health risks
associated with Ciprofloxacin resistance in Camplyobacter jejuni induced by use
of Enrofloxacin in chickens, for the Animal Health Institute (AHI). http://www.cvmbs.colostate.edu/cveadss/schedule/SchedulePage.htm
·
Critically
reviewed epidemiological studies of diesel exhaust and human lung cancer risk,
for the Engine Manufacturers Association.
·
For
the American Petroleum Institute (API), created a computer simulation model of
bone marrow and blood cell toxicity caused by cyclophosphamide, an immunosuppressive
drug. Designed laboratory experiments to
validate the model's predictions.
Analyzed clinical and laboratory data to test model's predictive
validity. Prepared a software release so
that other scientists could use the model.
·
Reviewed
literature on air pollution and human lung cancer risks, for the American
Petroleum Institute.
·
Applied
adaptive spatial sampling to optimize search and clean-up efforts for
remediating residential properties around an abandoned hazardous waste site
(for AlliedSignal)
·
Reassessed
human cancer risks from 1,3-butadiene using pharmacokinetic modeling to adjust
for interspecies differences in internal doses of epoxybutene (for the Chemical
Manufacturers Association)
·
Reassessed
the human leukemia risks from benzene exposure using a physiologically-based
pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to calculate internal dose (for the American
Petroleum Association)
·
Reviewed
design of an initiation-promotion experiment for studying the potential
carcinogenicity of a rubber additive, for Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company.
·
Developed
a general physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling software tool
for rapidly developing high-quality PBPK models (with ENSR Consulting and
Engineering, Inc.)
·
Reviewed
artificial intelligence approaches to characterizing uncertain health risks
using weight
of evidence,
nonmonotonic, and other uncertainty analysis (for Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory)
·
Assessed
potential health risks associated with occupational exposure to herbicides
among
roadside workers, using
pharmacokinetic models, for a Fortune 100 chemical manufacturer.
·
Recommendation
of cleanup priorities for a large hazardous waste site in
·
Developed
a prototype computer model for biologically based risk assessment of chemical
carcinogen risks, for the Western States Petroleum Association (WSPA) and the
American Petroleum Institute (API)
·
Reviewed
new biostatistical and "biologically based" approaches to cancer risk
analysis, for the
California Department of
Health Services
·
Reviewed
regulatory history of benzene risk assessments and of biomathematical
approaches to
modeling leukemogenesis
for the Western Oil and Gas Association and the American Petroleum Institute
·
Prototype
computer modeling of the AIDS epidemic (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)
·
Designed
a 2-year bioassay experiment for isoprene.
Analyzed and reported the resulting experimental data for a
multi-client, multinational industry group coordinated by Exxon Biomedical
Sciences.
·
Accident
risk analysis and consequence analysis of a petrochemical storage facility in
California-based
environmental consulting firm
·
Implemented
a Macintosh version of a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for
benzene pharmacokinetics and total metabolism in rodents and humans, for the
API
·
Explored
new mathematical approaches and conceptual frameworks for dealing with
scientific uncertainties in biologically-based risk assessment, for the Western
States Petroleum Association (WSPA)
·
Created
an interactive data analysis and graphics package for determining the degree of
worker protection provided by different respirators, filters, and face masks
(with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)
·
Microeconomic
and applied probability modeling of insurance company business risks for use in
tax litigation (with Arthur D. Little, Inc.)
·
Critically
reviewed a transportation risk analysis for liquefied natural gas (LNG)
operations in the
·
Reviewed
progress since 1985 in using decision analysis for accident risk assessments.
·
Implemented
an experimental "intelligent" data base management system for
chemical health effects
data bases (with Exxon Biomedical Sciences, Inc.)
·
Uncertainty
analysis of PBPK modeling and risk analyses, accounting for model uncertainties
and
population heterogeneity, for the American Industrial Health
Council.
·
Developed
new techniques to predict cancer risks associated with mineral oils, for Mobil
Oil.
MARKETING DATA
MINING AND STATISTICAL MODELING EXPERIENCE
·
Delivered an
analysis of the causal drivers of customer satisfaction to top executives at
Comcast Cable; identified realistic targets and interventions for improving
customer satisfaction (2010).
·
For
a top cable company, worked in partnership with
·
For
an energy utility, worked in partnership with
·
For
a telecommunications company, worked in partnership with North Highland
consulting company to develop a predictive model of customer marketing channel
choice, and usage as a function of quanlity of channel experience (e.g., for
web site, call center, retail store, and other channels.) Used the model to quantify financial impacts
of improving web-based customer care. (2006)
·
Also
in partnership with North Highland consulting company, analyzed employee survey
data for a major telecommunications provider and quantified patterns of
internal communications (conference calls, managing e-mail, company news
letters and bulletins, meetings, etc.); time spent on these activities by
employees with different job roles and in different VP areas; and potential to
reduce employee burden and improve the value and efficiency of internal communications.
(2006)
·
For
a European wireless telecommunications provider, analyzed customer data to help
develop more predictive segments; held a one-day intensive course in Brussels
on advanced statistical models and methods for quantifying customer value in
the short and long runs, based on probability and statistics models of customer
behaviors in response to company offers.
(2005)
·
In 2004, delivered to an international
telecommunications company a needs-based predictive segmentation model for cell
phone customers.
·
In 2003, in partnership with
·
In April, 2002, delivered to an internet
services provider (ISP) a decision-support model for predicting customers with
the highest churn potential and recommending specific interventions to reduce
churn. This system was found by the
client to reduce churn by over 40% within 4 months among at-risk customers.
·
In March, 2002, delivered to a financial
services company a set of predictive clusters for simultaneously predicting
churn, upsell, and cross-sell potentials for existing customers. The predictive validity, stability, and high
practical value of the predictive clusters were confirmed by the client in 2003
and 2004.
·
In October, 2001, completed
a study to identify ways to predict which competitive local exchange carrier
(CLEC) customers would experience the most revenue growth in the next quarter
and which would be most likely to drop accounts.
·
In
August, 2001, completed an analysis of insurance customer data showing that
combining information from homeowner, auto, and other insurance lines using
classification trees and transition models could dramatically improve accurate
identification of cross-sell, up-sell, and retention opportunities.
·
In
December, 2000, completed a study of purchasing patterns among large business
customers for Qwest communications. The results show that a few key products,
together with factors such as account age, predict likely stability or churn of
customers, as well as likely growth potential.
·
In 2Q, 2000, delivered to statistical analyses of the effects of U
S WEST and competitor advertising and publicity (including brand/service
commercials, direct mail, and news stories) on customer ratings of
value and loyalty.
·
Analyzed
marketing data for AT&T-TCI to determine which current cable customers are
most likely to switch to digital cable in the next quarter, based on current
cable, telephony, and demographic risk factors.
·
Created
and validated a statistical (semi-Markov state transition) risk model to
predict product and account attrition among U S WEST customers. Delivered to
the CRMS group in U S WEST Communications a predictive model for identifying
the likely future purchasing, product-drop, and account disconnect behaviors of
individual customers. The new model has significantly greater predictive power
than previous ones, achieving lifts of several hundred percent on the task of
predicting which 10% of customers are most likely to buy specific products in
the next few months.
·
Developed
new statistical optimal matching procedures to decide which products to offer
which customers to maximize average revenue yield and lifetime revenue value
for U S WEST Communications.
Demonstrated a potential increase of over 40% for short-term
revenues. 15% revenue increase was
achieved in a preliminary in-market trial of intelligent scripting.
·
Used
a new causal modeling and data-mining technique to predict likely future
product purchases from past purchase data and demographics, for U S WEST
Consumer Services Group.
·
Created
a new forecasting model for application to short-tem and cross-sectional market
data. The new method combined
classification tree analysis with compartmental flow simulation. Applied to real data, it successfully allowed
growth in demand for access lines to be predicted as accurately using less than
6 months of data as was previously possible using over 5 years of data with
conventional time series forecasting methods.
The forecasts were used by U S WEST Communications in 1997.
·
Created
and implemented a combined machine-learning/transition simulation forecasting
technique to use detailed call records to more accurately predict traffic loads
arriving at different locations within a wireless network for PrimeCo Personal
Communications Services Ltd.
·
Developed
a simulation-based model of cable customer transitions among different behaviors
(adding and dropping basic and enhanced cable services, switching among
services and locations, etc.) for TCI.
·
Analyzed
cable franchise data for over 400 TCI cable systems to identify predictors of
service quality perceptions and churn.
Successfully identified unexpected demographic predictors of
profitability and satisfaction.
·
Analyzed
macroeconomic data and survey data for a consortium of Indonesian companies to
predict the penetration of telephony, PCs, internet services, and cable over
the next 15 years.
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
NETWORK DESIGN AND OPTIMIZATION EXPERIENCE
After leaving U S WEST
Advanced Technologies, Dr. Cox has led the following projects.
·
SONET-DWDM
and mesh planning tools that allow for unspecified (any-to-any) demands and
incremental planning with ring, mesh, or hybrid protection (2005-2010).
·
Led
delivery of a hybrid ring/mesh architecture network planning software tool to
Sprint (2004)
·
Led
delivery of a combined SONET-DWDM mesh topology design tool to Tellabs, Inc.
(2003)
·
Developed
network planning, optimization, and risk analysis tools for a satellite company
(3Q-02)
·
Created
a competitive cost model for Sprint’s national optical network (1Q-3Q, 2002)
·
Delivered
a Passive Optical Network (PON) configurator tool to a PON equipment vendor
(1Q-02)
·
Delivered
to Sprint a port-level SONET ring planning tool. An initial version of the tool was
successfully used in creating Sprint’s 2002 network build plan (4Q-01)
·
Delivered
to Redback Networks of a card-level SONET ring planning and optimization tool
(3Q-01). This software tool is now
marketed commercially by Redback Networks.
·
Delivered
to Sprint a dark fiber network configuration planning tool, incorporating a
proprietary genetic algorithm, that reduced costs of metro-area networks by
over 50% compared to manual solutions. (1Q-01 for fiber-only version, 3Q-01 for
version with wireless link options)
·
Delivered
to Tellium a Dense Wave Division Multiplexing (DWDM) mesh topology design tool,
marketed commercially as StarNet Planner. (4Q-00)
·
Delivered
to Kestrel Solutions a SONET Ring Planning tool for optimizing placement of
optical add-drop multiplexer components in optical ring networks. (3Q-00)
·
Created
a new design for a backhaul network in
·
For
Sprint PCS, analyzed market demand forecasts and switching and interconnect
costs. Led development of a a 20-period
network growth and capacity planning and optimization software model. Identified a way to save over $1M
(approximately 10%) of network capital expenses for a small city by
reconfiguring the initial choice of switch modules to allow a more efficient
capacity expansion growth path (1997).
·
For
Cox California PCS, led development of a backhaul network optimization program,
solved via a new genetic algorithm, that reduced monthly backhaul costs by over
10% through more efficient of digital circuits to hubs and more economical use
of SONET facilities.
·
For
PrimeCo Personal Communications Services, Ltd., created an optimization model
of Multi-Channel Controller Card assignment and inventory management to reduce
the costs of expanding network capacity through base station capacity upgrades.
PREVIOUS
INDUSTRY EXPERIENCE
Before starting Cox Associates in 1986, Dr. Cox consulted in
statistics, health and safety risk analysis, operations research, computer
science, and econometrics for Arthur D. Little, Inc. He managed multimillion dollar AI risk
analysis software development projects for the U S Air Force and led cases
covering environmental fate and transport modeling of pollutants, risk analyses
for transportation and processing facilities, reliability modeling of complex
systems, and a variety of product development, insurance, R&D, computer
security, and electric utility applications.
He also acted as an expert statistician and economist in support of
several contract, tort, and administrative law cases and contributed to
projects on USDA Standards and Grades for food products, statistical analysis
of cigarette smoking data, safety of different types of protective masks,
etc.
In 1984, Dr. Cox won Arthur D. Little's Presidential Award
for outstanding contributions to the development of R&D planning and risk
assessment methodologies for the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).
Prior to joining Arthur D. Little, Inc., in 1979, Dr. Cox
worked in societal risk analysis, experimental cognitive psychology of text
processing, and applied statistics, at the American Institutes for Research
(AIR). He also co-authored a book on the
effects of court sanctions on the risks of chronic delinquent behavior, featured
on Good Morning America in 1979 and
still widely cited (e.g., http://www.ncpa.org/bg/bg148/bg148b.htm,
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/crime/wilson.htm,).
OTHER
TECHNOLOGY EXPERTISE
Dr.
Cox was U S WEST Advanced Technologies' expert on statistics and econometrics,
artificial intelligence, decision and risk analysis, and digital signal
processing technologies, emphasizing pattern recognition, spoken language
understanding, and machine-learning applications.
He
has appeared on CNN and has been interviewed by KGNU Radio, the Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, and various newspapers about
profitable business applications of these and related technologies. He frequently represented U S WEST to
regulators and utility commissions in explaining the purpose, value, and
accomplishments of U S WEST's work these areas.
Dr. Cox has been interviewed many times about topics related to human
health risks of chemicals and antibiotics.
A presentation by Dr. Cox on animal antibiotic risks is described in the
Science section of The New York Times
(2006) http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/21/science/21cafe.html
Dr.
Cox has also been interviewed by The
Washington Post (2005). The
PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES
Professional Societies
·
Society
for Risk Analysis (SRA). Fellow since
1993. (Fellowship recognizes lifetime
contributions to the field of risk analysis)
·
Institute
for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), Edelman Laureate
since 2006 (recognizing outstanding achievement in the practice of OR/MS.).
·
Member
of the American Statistical Association since 1993.
Positions
Held
·
Treasurer
of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA), 2007-8; Treasurer-Elect, 2006
·
Elected
as one of two Counselors for the 400-member ORSA Special Interest Group on
Telecommunications, 1992
·
Member
of the International Life Sciences Institute's (ILSI's) Risk Science Institute
Cancer Dose-Response Working Group in 1991-1992.
·
Counselor,
Rocky Mountain Chapter of the SRA, 1990-1991
·
Secretary
and co-founder, New England Chapter of the SRA, 1985-86
Selected Awards
and Honors
· 2008 Innocentive Challenge Award. In 2008, Dr. Cox's
proprietary solution to a challenge on “Statistical Methods to Predict Clinical
Response” won an InnoCentive Award from Eli Lilly (http://www.innocentive.com/servlets/project/ProjectInfo.po?s=AW).
· 2007 Outstanding Practitioner Award, recognizing
excellent performance in the practice of risk analysis. Awarded by the Society for Risk Analysis.
· Outstanding Published Paper in 2006
Demonstrating an Application of Risk Assessment, awarded by
the Risk Assessment Specialty Section of the Society of Toxicology, March,
2007.
· Franz Edelman Finalist Award, for achievement in the
practice of Operations Research and the Management Sciences, awarded by the
Institute for Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), 2006.
· Best Reviewer, Decision Sciences, for Risk Analysis: An International Journal. 2006
· Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis, 2003 www.sra.org/newsletter/news0204.pdf
· Best Paper Award, Society for Risk Analysis, 2002, www.sra.org/news0203.pdf
· POMS National Award Finalist for paper: Cox LA, Bell
G, Glover F. A new learning approach to
process improvement in a telecommunications company. Production and
Operations Management, 4, 3,
217-227, 1995. Production and Operations Management Society
· INFORMS Prize for best real-world applications of operations
research having substantial business value, 1994
· Fellow of the Society
for Risk Analysis, 1993
At U S WEST Dr. Cox also
received many awards. Under his
leadership, in 1994, U S WEST won the Operations Research Society of America's
prestigious INFORMS Prize, awarded annually to the company in the world that has
best applied operations research methods in innovative ways that have had
profound business impact. In 1991 Dr.
Cox won U S WEST's Special Achievement Award for developing new approaches to
business risk analysis widely applied by U S WEST International. In 1992, he
won the U S WEST's Chairman's Award and two Special Achievement Awards for
innovations in network design credited with saving U S WEST over $100M. In 1994, Dr. Cox won U S WEST's new
President's Club and Circle of Excellence Awards for innovations in
probabilistic analysis of customer choice behavior.
LOUIS ANTHONY
COX, JR. - PATENTS
Dr. Cox has applied risk analysis, statistical decision
theory, and optimization principles to several fields in new ways. He is
inventor or co-inventor of the following innovations.
Speech
Synthesis Using Perceptual Linear Prediction Parameters (U.S. Pat. # 5,165,008, awarded November 17,
1992. Canadian Patent #2,074,418 awarded
December 12, 1995.)
(U.S. Patent
#5,508,999, awarded April 16, 1996.)
Method
and System for Planning and Installing Communication Networks.
(U.S. Patent
#5,515,367, awarded May 7, 1996.)
Automated
system and method for voice processing.
(U.S. Patent #5655006,
awarded August 5, 1997.)
Method
and system for identifying a corrupted speech message signal.
(U.S. Patent
#5,684,921, awarded November 4, 1997.)
Method
for providing a linguistically competent dialogue with a computerized service
representative. (U.S. Patent #5,685,000, awarded
November 4, 1997.)
Method and system for developing network analysis and
modeling with graphical objects. (U.S. Patent #5,715,432,
awarded February 3, 1998)
Adaptive
knowledge base of complex information through interactive voice dialogue.
(U.S. Patent #
5,774,860, awarded June 30, 1998)
Method
and system for linguistic command processing in a video server
environment.
(U.S. Patent
#5,832,439, awarded November 3, 1998)
Architecture and method for providing
interactive broadband products and services using existing telephone plant.
(U.S. Patent #5,857,142, awarded January 4, 1999.) http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/5857142.html
Method
for annotating and editing voice messages via acoustic bullet points. (U.S. Patent #5,943,402, awarded August 24th,
1999, http://www.patents.ibm.com/details?pn=US05943402__)
Calendar
system with direct and telephony networked voice control interface. (U.S. Patent #6,009,398, awarded December 28th,
1999, http://www.patents.ibm.com/patlist?icnt=US&patent_number=6009398&x=27&y=11
)
Method
and system for designing a cellular communication system. (U.S. Patent #6,181,917, awarded January 30th,
2001, http://www.delphion.com/cgi-bin/viewpat.cmd/US06181917,
http://www.patentstorm.us/patents/6181917.html
)
LOUIS ANTHONY COX, JR., PH.D.
SELECTED PUBLICATIONS
Selected Books, Reports, and Monographs
Cox,
Cox,
National Research Council. Committee on
Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological
Agent Risk Analysis, Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk
Assessment: A Call for Change. National
Academies Press.
http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12206#toc
National Research Council. Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department
of Homeland Security’s Biological Agent Risk Analysis. Interim Report on Methodological Improvements to the Department
of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis. National
Academies Press.
National Research Council.
Safety and Security of
Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage. National
Academies Press.
Raucher R, et al., Quantifying Public Health Risk
Reduction Benefits American
Water Works Association, 2002.
Cox,
Cox,
Area Editor, Decision Analysis, Risk Analysis, and Game Theory sections.
Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2008-2010. http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html
Cox
LA Jr. The impossibility of defining “frequency” satisfactorily,
revisited. Risk
Analysis. 2010
Brown G, Cox LA Jr. How probabilistic risk
assessment can mislead terrorism risk analysts. Risk Analysis. 2010
Cox LA Jr.
Foundations of decision theory. Wiley
Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2010. http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html
Cox LA Jr., WA Huber.
Why
risk is not variance. Wiley
Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science. 2010. http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470400633.html
Cox LA Jr. A
causal model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) risk. Risk Analysis.
2010
Cox LA Jr. Regression
versus causation, revisited. Risk
Analysis. 2010 April; 30(4):535-540.
Cox LA Jr., Popken DA. Assessing potential human health hazards
and benefits from subtherapeutic antibiotics in the
Cox T. More general conditions under which
mean-variance decision making is unjustified.
Risk Analysis. 2010 March; 30(3):329.
Cox LA Jr. Why reduced-form
regression models of health effects versus exposures should not replace QRA:
livestock production and infant mortality as an example. Risk Analysis. 2009 Dec;29(12):1664-71.
Cox
LA Jr. Game theory and risk analysis. Risk Analysis.
2009 Aug;29(8):1062 -8.
Cox
LA Jr. What's wrong
with hazard-ranking systems? An expository note. Risk Analysis.
2009 Jul;29(7):940-8.
Cox LA Jr., Popken DA, Mathers J. Human health risk assessment of penicillin /
aminopenicillin resistance in enterococci due to penicillin use in food
animals. Risk Analysis. 2009
Jun;29(6):796-805
Cox LA Jr. A mathematical
model of protease-antiprotease homeostasis failure in chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD). Risk
Analysis 2009 Apr;29(4):576-86.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19000077
Parnell GS, Borio LL, Cox LA, Brown GG, Pollock S, Wilson AG.
Response to Ezell and von Winterfeldt. Biosecurity
and Bioterrorism: Biodefense Strategy, Practice, and Science. March 2009, 7(1):
111-112
Cox
LA Jr. Improving risk-based
decision making for terrorism applications.
Risk Analysis 2009 March;29(3):336-341.
Cox Jr LA. Hormesis without cell killing. Risk Analysis
2009 March 29(3):393-400. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18793280
Cox Jr LA. Some
limitations of frequency as a component of risk: An expository note. Risk Analysis 2009 Feb; 29(2):171-175 www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18681867
Cox, LA Jr. Making Telecommunications Networks Resilient Against
Terrorist Attacks. Chapter 8 in Bier VM
and
Cox LA Jr. Could
removing arsenic from tobacco smoke significantly reduce smoker risks of lung
cancer? Risk
Analysis
2009 Jan; 29(1):3-17.
www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/121502311/abstract?CRETRY=1&SRETRY=0
Cox LA Jr. Target
Sites – Cardiovascular. In P. Wexler et
al. (Eds.) Information Resources in Toxicology, Fourth
Edition. Elsevier Inc.
Cox LA
Jr. Target Sites – Hematopoiesis. In P. Wexler et
al. (Eds.) Information Resources in Toxicology, Fourth
Edition. Elsevier Inc.
Bier VM, Cox LA Jr, Azaiez MN. Why Both Game Theory and Reliability Theory are
Important in Defending Infrastructure Against Intelligent Attacks. Chapter
1 in Bier VM and
Cox LA Jr., Brown GG, Pollock
SM. When is uncertainty about
uncertainty worth characterizing? Interfaces 2008 Nov.-Dec. 38(6):465-468.
http://interfaces.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/38/6/465
Cox
LA Jr. Some limitations of “Risk = Threat ´ Vulnerability ´ Consequence” for risk analysis of terrorist attacks.
Risk Analysis
2008. Dec. 28(6):1749-1762.
Cox Jr LA, Popken DA. Overcoming
confirmation bias in causal attribution: A case study of antibiotic resistance
risks. Risk Analysis 2008 Oct; 28(5):1155-1171.
Cox LA Jr. R&D Planning and Risk Management. Wiley
Encyclopedia of Quantitative
Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2008.
Cox LA Jr. Managing Foodborne Risks. Wiley
Encyclopedia of Quantitative
Risk Analysis and Assessment, 2008.
Cox LA Jr,
Greenberg MR, Bostrom A, Haas C, Haimes Y, Landis W, Lowrie KW, Moolgavkar S,
North W. What is the scope of
the journal Risk Analysis? (Invited Editorial). Risk
Analysis 2008 Oct; 28(5):1135-1136.
Cox Jr LA. Why risk is not variance: An expository
note. Risk Analysis 2008 Aug
28(4):925-928. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18554271
Cox
LA Jr, Ricci PF. Causal
regulations vs. political will: Why human zoonotic infections increase despite
precautionary bans on animal antibiotics.
Environment International 2008
May;34(4):459-75
Cox LA Jr. What's wrong with risk matrices? Risk Analysis 2008 Apr;28(2):497-512.
Cox LA Jr, Huber WA.
Symmetry, identifiability, and prediction uncertainties in multistage clonal
expansion (MSCE) models of carcinogenesis. Risk
Analysis 2007 Dec;27(6):1441-53.
Cox LA Jr..
Regulatory false positives: True,
false, or uncertain? [letter] Risk Analysis 2007 Oct;27(5):1083-6.
Cox LA Jr. Health Risk Analysis for Risk Management
Decision-Making. Chapter 17 in
Advances
in Decision Analysis.
W. Edwards, R. Miles, D. von Winterfeldt, Eds. Cambridge University Press. 2007. http://www.cambridge.org/us/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=0521682304
Bier V, Cox LA Jr.
Probabilistic Risk
Analysis for Engineered Systems. Chapter
15 in Advances
in Decision Analysis.
W. Edwards, R. Miles, D. von Winterfeldt, Eds..
Cox LA Jr, Popken DA. Some
limitations of aggregate exposure metrics.
Risk Analysis 2007
Apr;27(2):439-45.
Cox
LA Jr. Does concern-driven risk management provide a viable
alternative to QRA? Risk Analysis 2007 Feb;27(1):27-43.
Cox
LA Jr., Popken DA, Carnevale R. Quantifying
human health risks from animal antimicrobials.
Interfaces 2007 Jan-Feb;
37(1): 22-38. http://interfaces.journal.informs.org/cgi/content/abstract/37/1/22
Singer
RS, Cox LA Jr, Dickson JS, Hurd HS, Phillips I, Miller GY. Modeling the
relationship between food animal health and human foodborne illness. Preventive Veterinary Medicine. 2007
Jan 29.
Cox
LA Jr. Quantifying potential health impacts of cadmium in cigarettes on
smoker risk of lung cancer: A portfolio-of-mechanisms approach. Risk Analysis 2006 Dec;26(6):1581-99.
Cox
LA Jr, Sanders E.. Estimating
preventable fractions of disease caused by a specified biological mechanism:
PAHs in smoking lung cancers as an example.
Risk Analysis 2006 August 6(4):881-892. (Winner, "The Outstanding Published Paper in 2006 Demonstrating
an Application of Risk Assessment",
awarded by the Risk Assessment Specialty Section of the Society of Toxicology, March,
2007)
Cox LA Jr. and D Babayev. Networked facilities expansion problem. International Journal of Information Technology and Decision-Making 2006 June; 5(2):379-396. http://www.worldscinet.com/ijitdm/05/0502/S0219622006002003.html
Cox
LA. Detecting
causal nonlinear exposure-response relations in epidemiological data. Dose
Response. 2006 Aug 19;4(2):119-32.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2477674
Cox LA Jr. Ad hominem argument unsuitable for animal antibiotics [letter]. Clinical Infectious Diseases 2006 June 15;42: 1803-4.
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdf/10.1086/505402
Cox LA. A model of
cytotoxic dose-response nonlinearities arising from adaptive cell inventory
management in tissues. Dose Response. 2006 May 22;3(4):491-507.
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=2477194
Cox LA Jr, Wong C. State
transition model for customer relationship management. Direct
Marketing Analytics Journal. May, 2006,
9-15.
Cox
LA. Universality of J-Shaped and U-Shaped dose-response
relations as emergent properties of stochastic transition systems. Dose-Response 2006 May 1; 3(3): 353–368.
Cox LA Jr. Enrofloxacin in poultry and human health
[letter]. Emerging Infectious Diseases.
2006 May;12(5): 872-3. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no05/05-1477_06-0305.htm
Cox
LA Jr. Routine use of
antibiotics in food animals increases protein production and reduces prices
[letter]. Clinical Infectious Diseases
2006 Apr 1;42(7):1053.
Cox T. Potential Human Health Impacts of Banning
Antibiotics Used in Food Animals: A Case Study of Virginiamycin. Chapter in D. Barug, J. de Jong, A.K. Kies and M.W.A. Verstegen (Eds). Antimicrobial
Growth Promoters Where Do We Go From Here?
Wageningen Academic Publishers. The
Cox
LA Jr, Popken DA. Quantifying potential human health impacts of animal
antibiotic use: Enrofloxacin and macrolides in chickens. Risk Analysis. 2006 Feb;26(1):135-46.
(Note:
The publisher has made this article available for free as one of the
most-cited Risk Analysis articles of
2005-2007,
www.blackwell-synergy.com/action/showMostCitedArticles?journalCode=risk.)
Cox
LA Jr. Animal antibiotic use and human health: No expert judgment is needed
to determine that reducing cases reduces risk. Risk Analysis. 2006 Feb;26(1):157-61.
Ricci
PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR. Science-policy in environmental and health
risk assessment: If we cannot do without, can we do better? Hum Exp Toxicol. 2006 Jan;25(1):29-43.
Cox
LA Jr. Some limitations of a proposed linear model for antimicrobial risk
management. Risk Analysis. 2005 Dec; 25(6): 1327-1332.
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00703.x
Cox LA Jr, Phillips I..
Salmonella serotype typhimurium, not antimicrobial resistance per se, is associated with excess
bloodstream infections and hospitalizations.
Letter to the Editor, Journal of
Infectious Diseases. 2005 Dec 1;
192(1): 2029-2030.
www.journals.uchicago.edu/
cgi-bin/resolve?id=doi:10.1086/498044
Cox LA, Babayev D. Optimization under
uncertainty via random sampling of scenarios II. Applied and Computational Mathematics,
2005;4(1): 20-28
Cox LA Jr., VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R. Optimal tracking and testing of US and Canadian herds for BSE: A Value-of-Information (VoI) approach. Risk Analysis, 2005; 25(4): 827-840. http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00648.x
Ricci PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR. First do no harm: Can regulatory science-policy in risk
assessment be deleterious to health?
Biological Effects of Low Level Exposures (BELLE) Newsletter, 2005
July;13(10):26-37
Cox,
LA Jr. Precaution and consequences. Letter to the Editor. PLoS
Medicine. July, 2005. http://medicine.plosjournals.org/perlserv/?request=read-response&doi=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020232
Cox
LA Jr. Parkinsonism and welding: testing for statistical vs. causal associations. Letter to the Editor. Neurology. June 29, 2005. http://www.neurology.org/cgi/eletters/64/2/230
Cox LA Jr, Babayev D, Huber W. Some
limitations of qualitative risk rating systems.
Risk Analysis, 2005 Jun;25(3):651-62
http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00615.x
Cox LA Jr, Copeland D, Vaughn M. Antimicrobial
resistance in Campylobacter. Letter to the Editor. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2005 June; 11(6) http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol11no06/04-0689_05-0266.htm
Ricci PF, MacDonald TR, Cox LA Jr. Precautionary
decision making: Analysis and results. Int.
J. Risk Assessment and Management, 2005 6(2-4):237-270.
Cox
LA Jr. Potential human health benefits of antibiotics used in food
animals: A case study of
virginiamycin. Environment International, 2005 May;31(4): 549-563.
doi:10.1016/j.envint.2004.10.012
Cox LA Jr, Copeland D, Vaughn M.. Ciprofloxacin resistance does not affect duration of domestically
acquired campylobacteriosis. Letter to
the Editor. Journal
of Infectious Diseases. 2005 May 1; 191(1):
1565-6. http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JID/journal/contents/v191n9.html
Cox LA Jr, Ricci PF.. Causation in
risk assessment and management: Models, inference, biases, and a microbial
risk-benefit case study. Environ Int.
2005 Apr;31(3):377-97.
Cox, LA Jr. Predicting and optimizing customer
behaviors. Chapter 12 in A. Labbi (Ed.),
Handbook of Integrated Risk Management
for E-Business: Measuring, Modeling, and
Managing Risk. J. Ross
Publishing. February, 2005. http://www.jrosspub.com/Engine/Shopping/catalog.asp?store=12&category=351&item=2813
Cox LA, VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R.?? Reply to Comment on Tracking and testing of US and Canadian cattle herds
for BSE: A risk management dilemma. CHOICES: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource
Issues. 1st Quarter,
2005. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/2005-1/comment.htm
Cox LA, Babayev D. Optimization under
uncertainty via random sampling of scenarios I.
Applied and Computational Mathematics, 2004
December;3(2):95-106.
http://www.science.az/acm/2004_2/abstractpdf/babayev_95-106.pdf
Popken, DA
and LA Cox. A
simulation-optimization approach to air warfare planning. Journal of Defense Modeling and
Simulation, 1(3), 127-140.
December, 2004. http://www.scs.org/pubs/jdms/vol1number3/Popken.pdf
Ricci PF, Cox LA Jr, MacDonald TR. Precautionary
principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk. Human Experimental Toxicology 2004
Dec;23(12):579-600. Previously published
in BELLE (Biological
Effects of Low Level Exposures) Newsletter. 2004
Sep;12(2):13-33. http://www.belleonline.com/BELLE_09_04F.pdf
Cox LA, VanSickle JJ, Popken DA, Sahu R. Tracking and testing of US and Canadian cattle herds for BSE: A risk
management dilemma. CHOICES: The Magazine of Food,
Farm, and Resource Issues. 4th
Quarter, 2004, 51-4. http://www.choicesmagazine.org/2004-4/grabbag/2004-4-12.htm
Cox
LA Jr. Domestically acquired fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter infection.
Letter to the Editor. Clin Infect Dis. 2004 Nov 1;39(9):1399-1400.
http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/CID/journal/issues/v39n9/34073/34073.html,
www.cdc.gov/narms/publications/2004/CoxKass__2004.pdf
Cox LA Jr, Popken DA.. Bayesian
Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis of human health risks from animal
antimicrobial use in a dynamic model of emerging resistance. Risk Analysis, 24, 5, October 2004.
1153-1164. (Winner, Society for Risk
Analysis, 2003 Best Paper Award. http://www.sra.org/newsletter/news0204.pdf)
Cox LA Jr. Campylobacter risk data out of date? Letter to the
Editor. Comprehensive Reviews in Food
Science and Food Safety. 3, October, 2004. http://www.ift.org/pdfs/crfsfs/crfsfsv3n4p0125-0126.pdf,
http://members.ift.org/NR/rdonlyres/A116915E-BDC5-4E31-9B40-2771D8545C2B/0/crfsfsv3n4p01250126.pdf
Phillips I, Casewell M, Cox T, De Groot B, Friis C, Jones R, Nightingale C, Preston R, Waddell J. Does the use of antibiotics in food animals pose a risk to human health? A reply to critics. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2004 May 12. http://jac.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/full/54/1/276
Cox LA Jr, Popken DA. Quantifying
human health risks from virginiamycin used in chickens. Risk Analysis 24, 1. February, 2004. 271-88. (Finalist, Society for Risk Analysis,
2002 Best Paper Award.)
Phillips
I, Casewell M, Cox T, De Groot B, Friis C, Jones R, Nightingale C, Preston R,
Waddell J. Does the use of antibiotics in food animals pose a risk to human
health? A critical review of published data. J Antimicrob Chemother. 2004
Jan;53(1):28-52.
http://jac.oupjournals.org/cgi/content/full/53/1/28#DKG483TB2
Bafundo KW, Cox LA, Jr., Bywater R,
2003. Causal animal antibiotic-foodborne illness relationship
explored. Feedstuffs. June 30, 2003. p. 8 (Invited Letter to the Editor).
Cox
LA Jr. Mortality associated with foodborne bacterial gastrointestinal
infections: Statistical method is worth examining. BMJ.
2003 Jun 7;326(7401):1265. Rapid Response
Letter. http://bmj.com/cgi/eletters/326/7385/357#29767
Bafundo KW, Cox LA, Jr., Bywater R,
2003. The use of virginiamycin in food animal production. Feedstuffs. Jan. 20, 2003. 26-27. (Letter to the Editor)
Lipscomb
JC, Teuschler LK, Swartout J, Popken D, Cox T, Kedderis GL.. The
impact of Cytochrome P450 2E1-dependent metabolic variance on a risk-relevant
pharmacokinetic outcome in humans. Risk
Analysis 2003 Dec;23(6):1221-38.
Ricci
PF, Rice D, Ziagos J, Cox LA.
Precaution, uncertainty and causation in environmental decisions. Environ Int. 2003 Apr;29(1):1-19.
Cox
Cox LA, Popken, DA, 2002. Quantifying
human health impacts of animal antibiotics: Risk management alternatives for
enrofloxacin. Winner, Society for Risk
Analysis Best Paper Award, December, 2002.
www.sra.org/news0203.pdf
Cox,
LA, Popken DA, 2002. A simulation model of human health risks from
chicken-borne Campylobacter jejuni. Technology,
9:55-84.
http://www.cognizantcommunication.com/filecabinet/Technology/tech91abs.html#tech91abs4
Cox,
L.A. Jr., 2002. Data mining and causal modeling of customer behaviors. Telecommunications
Systems. 21(2-4):349-381.
http://www.mgmt.purdue.edu/faculty/kemal/telecomm/boca2000contents.pdf
Cox,
L.A., Jr., and Popken, D.A., 2002. A
hybrid system-identification method for forecasting telecommunications product
demands. International Journal of Forecasting Volume
18, Issue 4, October-December 2002, Pages 647-671
Ricci,
PF and Cox, LA 2002. Empirical
causation and biases in epidemiology:
Issues and solutions. Technology, 9:23-53.
http://www.cognizantcommunication.com/filecabinet/Technology/tech91abs.html#tech91abs3
Byrd DM, Cox, JA, Jr., Wilson, JM,
2001. Tracking antibiotics up the food
chain. Letter to the Editor, Science,
291, 30 March, 2001, p. 2550. http://www.pmac.net/AM/tracking.html
Cox, L.A.,
Jr., J.R. Sanchez, and Lu, L., 2001. Cost
savings from optimized packing and grooming of optical circuits: Mesh vs.
ring comparisons. Optical Networks
Magazine, May-June, 72-90.
Cox, L.A. Jr., 2001. Forecasting demand
for telecommunications products from cross-sectional data. Telecommunications Systems, 16:3, 439-456.
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Chiu,
S.Y., L.A. Cox, Jr., X. Sun, 1999.
Optimal sequential inspections of reliability systems subject to
parallel-chain precedence constraints. Discrete Applied Mathematics Vol. 96-97
(1-3), pp. 327-336.
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Lu, L., SY Chiu, and LA Cox, Jr.
1999. Optimal project selection:
Stochastic knapsack with finite time horizon.
Journal of the Operational
Research Society. 50, 645-650.
Ricci PF, Cox
LA, Jr. Empirical and theoretical analysis of the variability of maximum
likelihood estimates of benzene cancer risks. Environment International,
25: 745 - 754 1999.
Fraughnaugh, K., J. Ryan, H. Zullo,
Davis, L.,
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1997. Does diesel exhaust
cause human lung cancer? Risk Analysis, 17, 6, 807-829.
Cox, L.A., Jr., 1996. Reassessing benzene risks using internal
doses and Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis.
Environmental Health Perspectives,
104, Supplement 6, 1413-1429.
Cox,
Cox,
L.A., Jr., 1996. More accurate estimates of dose-response
functions using Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis: The Data Cube approach. Human
and Ecological Risk Assessment, 2,
1, 146-170.
Cox,
Cox,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=8901907&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b
Cox,
Cox,
Chiu, S., L. Lu, and
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=8901906&dopt=Abstract
Schnatter, A.R., M.G. Bird,
Sun, X., Qiu, Y., and Cox,
Cox, L.A., Jr., 1995. Simple relations between administered and
internal doses in compartmental flow models, Risk Analysis, 15, 2,
197-204.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=7604169&dopt=Abstract
Cox,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/htbin-post/Entrez/query?uid=7604169&form=6&db=m&Dopt=b
Grover, R.W., and
Cox LA,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox LA Jr, Ricci PF. Dose-response nonlinearities for benzene
revisited: a reply to Crump et al. Risk Analysis 1993 Oct;13(5):485-6.
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Qiu, Y., and L.A. Cox, Jr.,
Heuristic testing procedures for general coherent systems, European Journal of Operational Research, 69, 65-74, 1993.
Cox, L.A., Jr., Extending
the stochastic two-stage model of carcinogenesis to include self-regulation of
the non-malignant cell population, Risk Analysis, 12, 1, 129-138, 1992.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=1410709&dopt=Abstract
Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F.
Ricci, Reassessing benzene cancer risks using internal doses, Risk Analysis, 12, 3, 401-410, 1992.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=1410709&dopt=Abstract
Cox, L.A., Jr., and P.F.
Ricci, Dealing with uncertainty: From
health risk assessment to environmental decision making, Journal of Energy Engineering, 118,
2, 77-94, 1992. http://www.pubs.asce.org/WWWdisplay.cgi?9203780
Cox, L.A., Jr., Y. Qiu, and
L. Davis, Guess-and-verify heuristics for reducing uncertainties in expert
classification systems, in D. Dubois et al (eds), Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence. Morgan Kaufmann,
Parrish, S.H.,
Cox,
L.A., Jr., Biological basis of carcinogenesis: Insights from benzene, Risk Analysis, 11, 3, 453-464, 1991.
Cox,
Cox,
Hermansky, H., and Cox,
http://www.isca-speech.org/archive/eurospeech_1991/e91_0329.html
Cox, L.A., Jr., Uncertain
temporal logics for risk analysis, pp 1-13 in B.J. Garrick and W.C. Gekler
(eds), The Analysis, Communication, and
Perception of Risk. (Volume 8 in Advances in Risk Assessment series.)
Plenum Press,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox, L.A., Jr., Pragmatic
information-seeking strategies in expert classification systems, in D.
Brown and C. White (eds), Operations
Research and Artificial Intelligence:
The Integration of Problem-Solving Strategies.
Cox,
Cox, L.A., Jr., A
probabilistic risk assessment program for analyzing security risks, pp
331-340 in L.A. Cox, Jr., and P.F. Ricci (eds), New
Risks: Issues and Management. Plenum Press,
Cox,
Cox, L.A., and P.F. Ricci,
Legal and philosophical aspects of risk analysis, Chapter 30 in D.J. Paustenbach (ed), The Risk Assessment of Environmental and
Human Health Hazards: A Textbook of Case
Studies. Wiley,
Cox,
Cox, L.A., Jr., Y. Qiu, and
W. Kuehner, Heuristic least-cost computation of discrete classification functions with uncertain
argument values, Annals of Operations Research,
21, 1-30, 1989.
Ricci, P.F., L.A. Cox, Jr., and J.P. Dwyer, Acceptable
cancer risks: Probabilities and
beyond, J. Air Pollution Control Association (JAPCA), 39, 8, 1046-1053,
1989.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=2677256&dopt=Abstract
Cox,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3365220&dopt=Abstract
Cox, L.A., Jr.,
Statistical issues in the estimation of assigned shares for carcinogenesis
liability, Risk Analysis, 7, 1,
71-80, 1987.
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3615994&dopt=Abstract
Cox,
Ricci, P.F., and L.A. Cox,
Jr., Acceptability of chronic health risks,
Toxics Law Reporter, 1, 35, 986-1001, 1987.
Ricci, P.F., L.A.
Cox, Jr., and M. Baram, De minimis considerations in health risk assessment, J. Hazardous Materials, 15, 1987.
Cox,
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=PubMed&list_uids=3602509&dopt=Abstract
Cox,
Cummings, R.G., L.A. Cox,
Jr., and A. Myrick Freeman, III, General
methods for benefits assessment, Chapter 6 in J.D. Bentkover et al (eds), Benefits Assessment: The State of the Art. Reidel,
Fischoff, B., and L.A. Cox,
Jr., Conceptual framework for regulatory benefits assessment, Chapter 4 in J.D. Bentkover et al. (eds), Benefits Assessment: The State
of the Art. Reidel,
Cox, L.A., Jr., A new
measure of attributable risk for public health applications, Management
Science, 31, 7, 800-814, 1985
Cox,
Cox,
Fiksel, J., and L.A.
Cox, Jr., The process analysis approach, in P.F. Ricci and M.D. Rowe (eds), Assessing Health Impacts of Energy
Technologies at the National and Regional Levels.
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Fiksel, J., L.A. Cox, Jr.,
D.L. Richardson, and A. Adamantiades, Selection of nuclear safety R&D
projects through value-impact analysis, Nuclear Safety, 24,
1, 1983.
Cox,
Murray,
PUBLISHED
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS
Popken, DA and LA Cox. Model
identification and optimization for operational simulation. In Enabling
Technologies for Simulation Science VII, Alex F Sisti and Dawn A Trevisani,
Editors, Proceedings of SPIE Vol. 5091, 294-303. 2003.
Cox, LA and Bafundo KW. Health risks from virginiamycin use in
chickens. Poultry Digest Online. 3, 6.
2002. http://www.wattnet.com/Library/DownLoad/PD6virgin.pdf
Cox, L. A., M. Laguna, B. Melián, J. A.
Moreno-Pérez, and J. Sanchez (2001). Optimizing
placement and sizing of wave division multiplexing and optical cross-connect
equipment. Proceedings of the 9th
International Conference on Telecommunication
Systems, Modeling and Analysis, pp. 98-107.
2001
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox, L.A., Jr.,
"Learning approximately optimal planning trees from complex multivariate
data sets with the help of a causal theory", in I.H. Osman and J. Kelly
(eds), Proceedings of the Metaheuristics International Conference. Kluwer, Norwell, MA., pp 287-294, 1995.
Cox,
Qiu, Y., and L.A. Cox, Jr.,
"Optimal search for failed components in renewable coherent systems,"
Proceedings of the 1994 IEEE
International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, Volume 2.
Cox, L.A., Jr., "Heuristic
approaches to dynamic path assignment," in Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Operations Research
in Telecommunications, Boca Rotan, Florida, March, 1990.
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
Cox,
PUBLISHED ABSTRACTS
Cox,
Cox, L.A.., Jr. and F.B. Thomas, "A
generic PBPK modeling tool for rapidly developing PBPK models," The Toxicologist, 12, 1, abstract # 684, p. 188, February, 1992.
Cox, L.A., Jr., M.G. Bird, W. Lampson,
and S.J. Wykoff, "An expert database management tool for biological
effects of chemicals," The Toxicologist, 12, 1, abstract # 1376, p. 352, February, 1992.
Cox,
Bell
G. and Cox,
Cox,
Babayev
D. and Cox,
Cox,
SELECTED
MAJOR TECHNICAL REPORTS
1. Following
Instructions. American Institutes for Research in the
Social and Behavioral Sciences (AIR),
2. Development,
Application, and Evaluation of a Value-Impact Methodology for Prioritization of
Reactor Safety R&D Projects. EPRI Report RP-1810-2, Electric Power Research
Institute,
3. Methods
for Risk Analysis of the Transportation of Hazardous Materials. Final Report to the Openbaar Lichman
Rijnmond. Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
4. A
Workshop on Dealing with Uncertainty in Risk Analysis. Final Report to the Division of Policy
Research and Analysis (PRA), National Science Foundation. Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
5. PERCO: A Model for Prioritization of Environmental
Risks and Control Options at Hazardous Waste Sites. Final Report to the Massachusetts Department
of Environmental Quality Engineering (DEQE).
Arthur D. Little,
6. Principles
for the Use of De Minimis Concepts in Risk Regulation. Final Report to the Division of Policy
Research and Analysis (PRA), National Science Foundation. Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
7. Analysis
of Routine Occupational Risks Associated with Selected Electrical Energy
Systems. EPRI Report EA-4020, Electric Power Research
Institute,
8. An
Automated Threat Assessment Methodology for Security Risk Analysis. Final
Report to the
9. A
Conceptual Framework for Research Planning at the Health Effects Institute.
Final Report to the Health Effects Institute (HEI), Arthur D. Little,
Inc.,
10. Predictions
of Future Cancer Incidence Rates Among Nuclear Power Plant Employees. Final Report to the American Nuclear Insurers
and Mutual Atomic Energy Underwriters.
Arthur D. Little, Inc.,
11. Reassessing
the Internal Doses in Humans and Animals from Inhalation of Butadiene. Report to the Chemical Manufacturers
Association. Cox Associates, Denver, CO,
November, 1989.
12. New
Directions in Cancer Modeling and Risk Assessment for Benzene.
Final Report to the Western States Petroleum Association. Cox Associates, Denver, CO, July, 1990.
13. Reassessing
the Risks of Chemical Carcinogens using PBPK Models: Benzene as an Example. Report
to the American Petroleum Institute. Cox
Associates, Denver, CO, December, 1990.
14. Techniques
and Methodology for Dealing with Scientific Uncertainties in Biologically-Based
Risk Assessment. Report to the Western States Petroleum
Association. Cox Associates, Denver, CO,
February, 1991.
15. STEM: A Data Acquisition and Management System for
Exploring Biological Effects of Chemicals. Report to Exxon
Biomedical Sciences, Inc. Cox
Associates, Denver, CO, June, 1991.
16. Deterministic
Biomathematical Models for Risk Modeling.
Report to the
API/WSPA Biologically-Based Risk Assessment Working Group. Cox Associates, Denver, CO, October, 1991.
17. Uncertainty
Analysis of PBPK Models. Final Report to the American Industrial
Health Council Delivered Dose Working Group.
American Industrial Health Council,
18. Basic
Biology Review and Biomathematical Modeling of
19. Managing
Statistical Uncertainties in PBPK Modeling. American Industrial
Health Council (AIHC),
20. A
Unifying Class of Linear Compartmental Flow Models of Carcinogenesis.
Report to the American Industrial Health Council (AIHC). Cox Associates, Denver, CO, January, 1994.
21. Internal
Dose and Uncertainty Analysis of Complex Risk Models. Report to the American Industrial Health
Council (AIHC). Cox Associates, Denver,
CO, January, 1994.
22. An
Exact Analysis of the Multistage Model Explaining Dose-Response Concavity.
Report to the American Industrial Health Council (AIHC). Cox Associates, Denver, CO, February, 1994.
23. Dealing
with Uncertainties in a Biologically-Based Risk Assessment Model of
Cyclophosphamide-Induced Leukemogenesis. American Petroleum
Institute, Health and Environmental Science. Report # DR70.
24. Data
Analysis and Risk Modeling of Lung Tumor Risks from Diesel Exhaust.
Report to the Western States Petroleum Association. Cox Associates, Denver, CO, March, 1995.
25. Comments
on EPA’s Proposed Decisions on Standards for Particulate Matter and Ozone. Final
Report to the Engine Manufacturers Association.
Cox Associates, Denver, CO. March
8, 1997. 38 pages
26. Technical
and Policy Issues in Regulating Particulate Matter (PM) Air Pollution: An Information Primer.
Draft Report to the American Petroleum Institute. Cox Associates, Denver, CO. March 31, 1997. 50 pages
27. U
S WEST Customer Attrition Modeling:
Learning to Predict Customer Attrition Risk From Data.
Final Report to U S WEST Communications.
Cox Associates, Denver, CO.
August 14, 1997. 36 pages +
Appendices
28. Comments
On OEHHA's 1997 Draft Risk Assessment For Diesel Exhaust.
Final Report to the Engine Manufacturers Association. Cox Associates, Denver, CO. 8-20, 1997. 34 pages.
29. A
Method to More Accurately Forecast Demand for Local
30. Next Optimal Product Project: Optimal Statistical Matching of Product Offers to Customer Needs. Final Report to U S WEST Communications. Cox Associates, Denver, CO